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To start the week, U.S. indices closed in the green but fell throughout the day in response to the underwhelming April performance, which also saw indices close lower on Friday to end the month. Focus this week remains on earnings as well as the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting, set to take place on Tuesday and Wednesday. Fed Chair Jerome Powell will meet with the press on Wednesday to make the latest Fed announcement, with many expecting continued interest rate hikes. Inflation and treasury yields also remain prominent in influencing markets in the coming days and weeks. This week we will see key earnings releases from Pfizer, BP, Lyft, Marathon, Starbucks, Allstate, CVS, Uber, and DoorDash. As well as earnings from eBay, GoDaddy, Marriott, MetLife, Moderna, DropBox, Kellogg, Shell, Shopify, Adidas, and DraftKings. Economic reports this week, aside from the FOMC announcement, to look out for include March Job Openings and Factory Orders, April Motor Vehicle Sales and ADP Employment, and Q1 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs.
The geopolitical concerns in Ukraine and the Federal Reserve’s decision on monetary policy this week may influence the market’s next move. We are watching the overhead resistance levels in the SPY, which are presently at $430 and then $435. The $SPY support is at $404 and then $380. We expect the market to continue the pattern of lower highs and lower lows for the next 2-6 weeks. In the short term, the market is oversold. All eyes on the VIX, currently trading near 33 level. Globally, both Asian and European markets traded to mixed results. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $15.28 with a vector of +1.36% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, sh. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $105.33 per barrel, up 0.61%, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $78.38 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 2.57% at $1862.50 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $173.63 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.52% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 2.974% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 3.027% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $32.34 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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