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Monday’s stock market declines were widespread, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average entering a correction, and the Nasdaq Composite Index finishing in a bear market, as investors weighed the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the potential U.S. ban on oil exports from Russia, which could boost price pressures. All three major U.S. indices closed in the red as new 2022 lows were hit. Reports continue to come in regarding Russia’s invasion as well global sanctions and deliberations regarding further action. The third set of negotiations between Russia and Ukraine concluded today with no resolution. Due to this situation, oil prices continue to spike as futures and crude prices extend towards all-time highs. Inflation also remains a prominent topic as the latest key inflation report is due Thursday with the release of the consumer price index. Core CPI and Federal deficit will also release on Thursday while next week the latest Federal Open Market Committee meeting is set to take place. Today’s release of the consumer credit report showed consumers utilized less credit in January than they did a year ago, reflecting that households curtailed borrowing early this year.
The volatility index is trading higher, near the 35 level. The main factors that could influence the next move in the market are the geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the latest U.S. inflation data. We’re keeping an eye on crucial support levels in the SPY, which at present stand at $420 and $400. The $SPY Overhead resistance level is $445. We believe that the market will retreat even further over the next two weeks. Globally, both Asian and European markets traded significantly lower. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $477.95 with a vector of -0.08% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, NOC. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $120.33 per barrel, up 4.65% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $82.37 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 1.79% at $2001.8 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $186.41 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +1.13% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.885% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.266% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $36.45 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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