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To start off the busy week, markets are trading lower with all three major U.S. indices on track to close in the red. This week we will see key earnings from Apple, Amazon, Facebook, Microsoft, Visa, and MasterCard, as well as the first Federal Open Market Committee meeting of 2020. On Wednesday, the latest monetary policy announcement will be made following the tw0-day FOMC meeting; afterward, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will meet the press. Current SPY support level is at $320, also the 50-days M.A. on SPY, and we remain bullish during this earnings season. Additional pullbacks are expected and we look to buy near $320. We expect a 2-5% correction in the marker next 4-6 weeks as the market is losing momentum, especially within the technology sector. Market Commentary readers are encouraged to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
With markets trading lower over concerns regarding the China coronavirus and further fallout, both U.S. and European markets traded lower while Asian markets were mixed. The death toll in China has risen to 80 and additional preventive measures have been taken. Beyond impacting global markets, oil is also suffering from the recent scare as oil, along with other commodities, continue lower. This week, corporate earnings and the FOMC will be key while the first crucial economic report of the week has already been released today. New Home sales in December dipped; look out for monthly durable goods, personal income, consumer spending, and Q4 GDP to release this week.
Tomorrow, we will receive earnings data from Apple, Pfizer, Starbucks, 3M, and eBay as well the first day of the FOMC on Capital Hill. Wednesday will feature Microsoft, AT&T, Facebook, Boeing, Tesla, MasterCard, and PayPal as well as the Powell press conference following the second day of the FOMC. On Thursday, market focus will turn to Amazon, Visa, and Coca-Cola earnings while Friday features the lightest load of earnings with Chevron, Exxon, and Caterpiller releasing Q4 data. Other key reports being release include Q4 GDP and Employment Cost Index, December Personal Income and Consumer Spending, and January Consumer Confidence Index.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Today’s vector figure of -0.04% moves to +0.51% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On January 10th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Apple Inc. (AAPL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
Trade Breakdown
AAPL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $309.63(± 1.05) in its third hour of trading that day and passed through its Target price of $312.73 in the second hour of trading the following trading. The Stop Loss price was set at $306.53.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, GLD. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Gold SPDR (GLD). GLD is showing a positive vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $148.63 at the time of publication, with a 0.00% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $52.77 per barrel, down 2.64% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.08 at the time of publication. Vector figures show -0.97% today, which turns to -0.88% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.66% at $1,582.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $148.63, at the time of publication. Vector signals show 0.00% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 2.21% at 1.52% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 1.91% at 2.18% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.29% moves to +0.22% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $16.85 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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