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After a Tuesday that saw continued tech selloff weigh down U.S. Stocks, overall U.S. assets actually rose due to strong gains in the energy sector. Today’s action can be described as hesitant as traders look to dissect the big news following Federal Open Market Committee meeting which ended 2:00 PM ET, followed by a 2:30 PM ET press conference from new Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Investors will be watching for an update on projected interest rates and Powell’s tone as the first-time chair. A .25% Fed raise in interest rates was announced after the meeting; investors continue to closely monitor and analyze new chair Powell’s tone as he takes questions from the media for a sense of whether the Chairman sees three or four interest rate hikes for this year. While some analysts do not expect major changes to occur or affect the economy following the Fed’s policy statement, others see a possible shift from headwinds to tailwinds. Fed officials will also likely discuss the $1.5 trillion tax cut from earlier in the year along with the possibility of reaching the central bank’s target for inflation at 2%.
In other news, General Mills earnings report and outlook came in well below expectations cause shares to plunge. An existing home sales report for February was released today. Sales of homes jumped 3% from January while median home price grew by 5.9% compared to February of last year, which is encouraging to investors as it signals a solid housing demand.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is up .34%, or 84.74 points, at 24,817.33. The S&P 500 is at 2,724.55 – up .25% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up .17% at 7,378.15.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.03% moving into positive territory tomorrow at 0.07% and then 1.00% within six trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,707.12 (±17.20) and 2,719.02 (± 17.28), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,715.14. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On March 20, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Micron Technology, Inc. (MU). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
MU opened within the Entry 1 price range of $59.94 (± 0.60) at $60.09, moving through its Target Price of $60.54 within the first hour of trading. The Stop Loss was set at $59.34.
Our featured stock for Thursday is the Adobe Systems Incorporated (ADBE). ADBE is showing a strong positive trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A)– indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure of above +1.00% for today that remains above 1.00% throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $227.625 at the time of publication, down 0.92% from the open with a +1.91% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $226.09, a low of $225.23 and a high of $235.95.
The predicted close for Thursday is $235.08. Vector figure remains positive at +1.66% on Thursday, holding above +1.00% throughout the forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities, because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil
After yesterday’s sharp climb following the Saudi Crown Prince’s visit to the U.S., oil futures continued to climb, reaching a two-month.The U.S Energy Information Administration report for last week’s crude supplies saw a decline of 2.6 million barrels for the week. Distillate and gasoline stockpiles both fell over 1.5 million barrels, the EIA also reported. West Texas Intermediate for May delivery (CLJ8) is priced at $64.99 per barrel at the time of publication, up 2.36% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $13.13 at the time of publication, up 2.50% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $12.78 (± 0.06) and resistance at $13.13 (± 0.07). The predicted close for today is $13.01. Vector figures show +1.06% today, which move to +1.97% the following trading session. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for April gold (GCJ8) is up 0.90% at $1,320.20 at the time of publication. Gold looks to be on a rebound today from a troubling Tuesday that saw a monthly low for the commodity. With the likely interest-rate hike to be delivered following the FOMC meeting, gold futures rose today. Investors will be watching for Chairman Powell’s comments after the meeting as higher interest rates could result in a stronger dollar, which typically weakens gold, however with inflation also on the mindset of investors and Feds, gold could act as a hedge.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $125.74, up 1.15% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $124.31 (± 0.32) and the predicted high is $125.81 (± 0.32). The predicted close today is $125.42. Vector signals show 0.53% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Bond investors look for more clarity following the FOMC meeting regarding inflation and the possibility of a fourth interest rate hike. While three hikes are forecasted, the current economic growth could justify a fourth interest rate hike which some analysts project could unsettle the market. Chairman Powell is projected to retain similar policy instincts as former Fed Chair Yellen, today’s press conference should signal if these projections hold true. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up .95% at 2.91% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.2% moves to 1.03% in three trading sessions, holding positive and above 1.00% vector throughout. The ETF is priced at $118.3 at the time of publication, down 0.55%. The predicted close today is $119.08 with a low and high of $118.84 (± 0.21) and $119.99 (± 0.22), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 9.4% at 16.49 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The predicted close for today is 18.73 with a vector of 2.08%. The predicted lows and highs are 16.36 (± 0.98) and 18.73 (± 1.12), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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