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Markets are trending up, aside from the Dow which is on track to close lower for the second straight day, behind mostly positive earnings beat this week. Yesterday, earnings from Facebook and Microsoft topped expectations and supported markets while Visa was able to beat expectations but saw shares lower. Major earnings to monitor today include Amazon, Intel, and Starbucks after the market closes while Comcast and 3M reported before the opening bell. Other headline news to monitor today includes a possible FTC fine Facebook could face as well as the broken merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank AG. Support for SPY is at $286 as the market continues to trade above its 200-day moving average. We are on pace to retest 52 weeks of high, $294, for the SPY. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Major earnings in focus today include Amazon and Intel, both reporting after market close. Other major reports after close to watch for include Capital One, Discover Financial, Ford GrubHub, Mattel, and Starbucks. Companies which have already reported today are headlined by 3M and Comcast, as well as UPS, Waste Mangement, Abbvie. 3M saw shares plummet after a downbeat guidance and underwhelming earnings while Comcast saw share initial dip but quickly rebound post-earnings release that topped expectations. Yesterday’s Microsoft and Facebook upbeat earnings helped support markets with shares still trending up while Tesla’s poor earnings continue to lower shares today. Look for Sony, Exxon, and Chevron to headline earnings news tomorrow while two major U.S. economic reports are also due to release. First quarter Gross Domestic Product data will debut in the morning while April Consumer Sentiment Index is set to release shortly thereafter. Next week’s major earnings include Apple, Google, Mastercard, Spotify, and Qualcomm.
The big non-earnings news of today involves the formerly agreed upon merger between two of Europe’s larger banks: Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank. Originally agreed upon last year and been in the works since 2015, the two banks decided to call off their merger today. Restructuring costs and the additional capital required were cited as major reasons the merger could not go through, leaving the European financial landscape a bit more shaky going forward. With Brexit uncertainty and several major elections coming up, look for global markets to feel some collateral effect as Europe sorts out its latest and ongoing concerns. Globally, Asian markets closed to mixed results while European markets finished unanimously lower. Over in the U.S., Facebook, still up from yesterday’s earnings, looks ahead at a possible FTC fine in the range of $5 billion for privacy violations. This is the latest such fine as Google and Apple received similar fates over the last two years.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.07% moves to -0.27% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,918.50. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On April 12th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Sysco Corp (SYY). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
SYY entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $68.12 (± 0.12) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $38.80 in the last hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $67.44.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured stock for Friday is Constellation Brands Inc. (STZ). STZ is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $212.45 at the time of publication, up 1.00% from the open with a +0.32% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for June delivery (CLM9) is priced at $65.72 per barrel, down 0.26% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mostly positive signals. The fund is trading at $13.68 at the time of publication. Vector figures show -0.25% today, which turns +2.39% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for June gold (GCM9) is down 0.02% at $1,279.30 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $120.58 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.04% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.39% at 2.53% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.52% at 2.95% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.07% moves to -0.91% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 1.14% at $12.99 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $12.68 with a vector of -0.11%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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