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U.S. Stocks largely finished in the green today after struggling for direction on Tuesday, with the S&P and Nasdaq closing in the green while the Dow closed 0.03% lower on Wednesday. Once again, the House of Representatives voted to impeach Trump while Senate Majority Leader McConnell stated the Senate would not move forward with impeachment just yet. Still, stocks remained at or near record territory with the inauguration coming next week. News on the Fed end indicated the Central Bank would continue its bond-buying program while the latest Fed Beige Book was released today. Although most districts reported flat or declining economic activity in the previous two months, the majority of Fed districts expressed optimism heading forward with the vaccine rollout currently ongoing. Similarly, the latest economic key economic data released included the U.S. budget deficit which reached $144 billion in December. Earnings season is set to kick off with major banks JPMorgan Chase, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup set to release quarterly reports on Friday. Next week, U.S. exchanges are set to close in observance of the MLK holiday while on Tuesday earnings pick back up with Netflix, Bank of America, and IBM. It is our opinion that the market could be prone to further corrections and the next level of support is set at $354. We continue seeing strong rotation from growth to value stocks as the SPY retested its recent highs. Until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting SPY to trade in the range of $354-$380. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Consumer Price Index (December) – Wednesday
Core CPI (December) – Wednesday
Federal Budget (December) – Wednesday
Beige Book – Wednesday
Weekly Jobless Claims (1/9) – Thursday
Import Price Index (December) – Thursday
Retail Sales (December) – Friday
Producer Price Index (December) – Friday
Industrial Production (December) – Friday
Capacity Utilization (November) – Friday
Business Inventories (November) – Friday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, PYPL. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $52.86 per barrel, down 0.66% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $35.8 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.03% at $1844.70 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $173.37, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.22% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.088% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.818% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.21 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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