RoboStreet – April 23, 2020
Selling On Earnings News Could Paint Tape
First-quarter earnings season is in full swing and giving investors some clues as to what to expect over the next two to four weeks. Heading into the front end of the reporting period, the market has enjoyed a 23% rally off the March 23 low in reaction to the wave of stimulus measures and improving news on the coronavirus curve flattening.
Markets were able to stage a rebound back to $282 level on SPY as of yesterday. Oil stocks rallied today and began the bottoming process within the energy sector. The technology sector, along with the most recent leaders, lead the market. Near-term momentum aside, I expect the market to retest $260 level on SPY early this week or next after seeing overbought stocks sell down on earnings news.
And remember we’re not talking about day-trading here. I’m looking for 50-100% gains inside of the next 3 months, so my weekly updates are timely enough for you to act.
The SPY shows the average price for May $264 and July $287. My model confirms a “U” shape recovery. I expect the market volatility and the three percent daily market moves to persist. At this point, I do believe we have set the bottom (market can overshoot support and resistance levels especially when VIX is high).
I believe the worst part of the sell-off is behind us. Please monitor VIX level as current levels are above the historical average. As long as VIX at $40-70 level market can approach the recent lows. My strategy is to aggressively buy any market sell-offs (10-15%).
The market (SPY) will trade in the range between $240 and $285 levels for the next 4 weeks. I believe the market will recover back to $290 level sometime during summer as the spread of the virus will slow down in Europe and the rest of the world.
Please follow key support levels on TLT ($142), GLD ($145). As long as these support levels are intact, the market is prone for pullbacks.
This week will see the third phase of stimulus passed by Congress targeting the small business community to the tune of just under $500 billion and there is speculation the Fed will talk up bailout funds for states at next week’s FOMC meeting.
Oil has taken center stage this week, the price of WTI crude enduring wild swings. A collapse in price that took short-term futures contracts into negative territory, but rebounded into yesterday’s close with crude closing at $17/bbl for June, $22/bbl for July and around $25/bbl for August.
Until WTI trades at $35/bbl, most U.S. producers can’t generate a profit. Even going out to the February 2021 contract, crude is only at $31/bbl. The bottom line is the energy sector is in a full-fledged bear market and presents some prime shorting opportunities.
Against a highly volatile investing landscape, many investors are finding comfort and opportunity in the Consumer Staples sector, where “essential” goods are basic to everyone’s life, and not really part of discretionary spending. The hunt for toilet paper and cleaning products has been incredible to watch and be a part of, but for certain companies, it’s a license to print money. The Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP) shows the top ten holdings account for 72.05% of total assets and spells out the stocks that dominate the space.
These are all fine companies, but true to form, at the top of the list is Proctor & Gamble (PG), with a 16.43% weighting. The company carries a market cap of $297 billion and operates in five segments: Beauty; Grooming; Health Care; Fabric & Home Care; and Baby, Feminine & Family Care in many of the most well-recognized brands in the world.
Consumers may put off vacations, but they will still line up to buy Tide, Gillette razors, Head & Shoulders, Old Spice and Secret deodorants, Crest and Oral-B mouth cleaning products, Cascade dishwasher soap, Pampers diapers, Tampax and, Charmin toilet paper…just to name a few of the product lineup. They’ve got the kitchen, bathroom, and cleaning closet covered.
As a Dow component, P&G is a heavy favorite of index funds and ETFs. It’s also a big favorite of my AI-driven stock selection platform, sporting four “higher” readings for the next 20, 30, 40, and 50-day periods. And why not? The stock has held in better than 90% of all stocks traded. After hitting a new all-time high of $128, shares of PG are trading at $119.
For those that want to get in on when I add PG to our RoboInvestor portfolio, where I participate in every trade personally, then joining as a member today is the best investment advice I can provide. We are currently long stocks like BlackRock Inc. (BLK), Clorox Co. (CLX), Dominion Energy (D), and Lockheed Martin Corp. (LMT) – serious blue-chip stocks that are highly favored in the current market.
Being that it is earnings season, investors are walking into a minefield of uncertainty where they can get blown up from all manner of big misses and lowered guidance. I steer clear of earnings headline risk as much as possible. And seeing stocks that are beating estimates and then selling off is indicative of the kind of reporting season that can be bad on the health of one’s stock portfolio.
Hire me and my market-proven algorithms to guide and lead you through the market gyrations with the power of AI working 24/7 in the RoboInvestor Portfolio to minimize risk and maximize profits. My stock and ETF picks make money 87.59% of the time. That’s not a typo.
Our track record crushes the competition and you’d be doing yourself a disservice by missing out on a system that makes money on nearly 9 out of every 10 trades, going back to April 2018. Work with us and join RoboInvestor today, and let us work for you. Your decision to do so will be richly rewarded, and remember, my investment capital is right there next to yours every day and in every trade.
And remember we’re not talking about day-trading here. I’m looking for 50-100% gains inside of the next 3 months, so my weekly updates are timely enough for you to act.
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