After a weekend of high-traffic retail spending and pushing through into Cyber Monday, we’re seeing strong gains in the consumer discretionary and financial sectors. Although we may be seeing an online-spending record set today, the energy sector is pulling back. This may be in part due to anticipation of a November 30 OPEC meeting, in which the global production cut deal struck last November will come into focus. Some analysts worry there may not be a concrete decision made between OPEC member-countries and nonmember countries- particularly Russia.

Also upcoming this week is a potential Senate vote on the tax-reform bill, with GOP leadership offering optimistic commentary on an eventual product to pass. Both market participants and lawmakers are shooting for a passing deal by the end of this year, in fear of a looming market correction as a result of no reforms being produced.

In cryptocurrency news, we’re seeing Bitcoin (BTCUSD) recovering from a pullback and pushing onward to the $10,000 mark. The leading cryptocurrency hit an all-time high today, climbing 3.3% to $9,657.01. Although some analysts warn that this is a dramatic bubble waiting to burst- the cryptocurrency market has defied most expectations so far.  There is also a series of proxy equities that have benefited from the surge, like e-commerce company Overstock.com (OSTK).  Overstock was trading around $15 earlier this year in July, but has since rallied to above $50 per share, due to the recent surge in Bitcoin. Whether or not this market is due for a major correction, there are certainly plays to made in the near future.   

At the time of publication, the DJIA is up 0.12%, or 29.65 points, at 23,587.79. The S&P 500 is trading at 2,602.55- up 0.01% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is down 0.07% at 6,884.29.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows  overall positive signals. Today’s positive vector figure of +0.14% moves to +0.70% within three trading sessions and rises from there.  Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,602.42 (± 3.29) and 2,609.73 (± 3.30), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,607.73. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On November 22, we closed out a long option trade in our Live Trading Room– which is exclusive to our Premium Membership plan- for Johnson & Johnson (JNJ). Our Live Trading Room sessions run each market day from 8:15 to 9:15 CST.

Trade Breakdown

The open date for this trade was 11/21, and we closed on 11/22. Our trading team entered at $1.19 and exited the position at $2.24– a Net Gain of $1.05.  Our Stop Price was set at $0.65, allowing for a Risk of $0.54.

Must-buy Stock for Tuesday

Our must-buy stock for Tuesday is Juniper Networks Inc. (JNPR). JNPR is following a strong bullish trajectory, showing continued positive vector signals in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of A, indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows vector figures climbing above +2.50% within the next trading session. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.

The stock is trading at $27.34 at the time of publication, up 0.35% from the open with a +1.42% vector figure.

Tuesday’s prediction shows an open price of $27.68, a low of $27.51 and a high of $28.36.

The predicted close for Tuesday is $28.09. Vector figures show +2.70% for tomorrow, building incrementally throughout the forecast.  This is a good signal for trading opportunities, because the vectors are a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

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Oil

Crude oil futures are slipping fast today as an important Thursday OPEC meeting approaches. This meeting will bring member and nonmember producer countries together in order to come to a conclusion around production cut rates, quotas and timelines. Although the general sentiment of investors and analysts expects some form of an extension to be agreed upon, quota levels and other vital benchmarks may take more time. It is essentially up to OPEC to provide data and guidance to ensure other participating producer countries that they’ll see 2018 benefits from their cooperation.  

U.S. domestic production may ramp up in the near future to compensate for a recent massive spill from the Keystone pipeline, which can offset recent data showing U.S. supplies dropping.  West Texas Intermediate for January delivery is priced at $58.18 per barrel at the time of publication, down 1.31% from the open.  

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows strong positive signals. The fund is trading at $11.64 at the time of publication, down 1.27% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $11.73 (± 0.04) and resistance at $12.03 (± 0.04). The predicted close for today is $11.86. Vector figures show +0.84% today, moving to +3.50% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.   

Gold

The price for December gold is up 0.56% at $1,294.50 a troy ounce at the time of publication. With tax-reform news incoming this week, as well as commentary from new and current Fed officials, the U.S. dollar is pulling back. Tuesday will see Jerome Powell, the newly appointed Fed Chairman, speak with a Senate panel. Outgoing Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen will be presenting to the Joint Economic Committee on Wednesday. These two events will be looked to for any clues around interest-rate policy in the near future.  Gold prices and the U.S. dollar tend to move inversely to one another, as a weaker dollar makes gold more attractive to investors holding foreign currencies.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows consistent upward movement. The gold proxy is trading at $122.90, up 0.47% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $122.32 (± 0.24) and the predicted high is $122.84 (± 0.24). The predicted close today is $122.47. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.   

Treasuries

Yields are fluctuating today as ongoing debt auctions- one for 2-year notes and a subsequent auction of 5-year notes. As the Fed pushes forward with preparing interest-rate hikes, short-term government paper is losing value. The lack of inflation figures hitting Fed targets has not seemed to stop them from continuing with their plan, so this trend will likely continue.  The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down just 0.01% at 2.33% at the time of publication. Bond prices tend to move inversely to yields.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.16% moves to -0.98% within the next three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $126.78 at the time of publication- down 0.02% from the open. The predicted close today is $127.08 with a low and high of $126.53 (± 0.23) and $127.83 (± 0.23), respectively.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is up 0.20% to 9.90 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. Retail boosts, coupled with energy sector pullbacks and tax-reform anticipation are all likely contributing to volatility.  The predicted close today is 9.36 with a negative vector of -1.96%, which reverts into positive trends within three trading sessions. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 8.56 (± 0.17) and 9.67 (± 0.20), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Cyber Monday Freebie. Watch where I put my money where my mouth is!
Click Here for my Year-end Feeding Frenzy Webinar.