Despite crude oil rally, stock markets see volatility following disappointing economic data and sliding tech shares

Major U.S indexes are trading choppy, a departure from pre-open positivity, after a durable-goods report disappointed investors. Technology shares have also turned downward, and a short-lived crude oil rally struggled to maintain. Investors have been largely interested in stocks in light of very low bond yields, but have been looking to oil and economic data for verification. Volatility in crude oil and a pattern of underwhelming economic data has informed slides in stocks. Durable-good orders dropped 1.1% last month, which was a bigger loss than expected.

The DJIA is currently up 0.15%, or 32.57 points, at 21,428. The Nasdaq-100 is down 0.16% at 6,255 and the S&P 500 is currently trading at 2,442 which is up 0.13% from the open.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows  consistent negative signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.13% continues to -0.34% within four trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance is 2,434.36 (± 4.19) and 2,443.05 (± 4.21), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,440.66. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.   

Oil

Crude oil prices are continuing fluctuations, as investors and analysts alike attempt to compare forecasted US domestic supplies against expected continuations of US crude production. A tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will likely hamper production temporarily. Analysts will continue to deliberate over whether or not US production growth has irreparably spoiled OPEC’s global production cut agreements, as well as their indications of extending the accord. West Texas Intermediate for August delivery is currently priced at $43.36 per barrel, up 0.79% from the open.  

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows strong downward movement. The fund is currently trading at $8.92, which is up 0.64% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $8.58 (± 0.05) and resistance at $8.91 (± 0.05). The predicted close for today is $8.68. Vector figures show -0.76% for today, incrementally building past -3.39% within three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.   

Gold

The price for August gold is currently up 0.96% at $1,244.70 a troy ounce. Gold prices dropped sharply as investors have rotated into riskier market assets . Gold becomes less attractive to investors holding foreign currencies when U.S dollar is strengthened, as it is priced in that currency.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows overall negative movement. The gold proxy is currently trading at $118.36, down 0.90% from the open. Today’s predicted low is $118.49 (± 0.27) and the predicted high is $119.96 (± 0.28). The predicted close today is $118.66. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.   

Treasuries

Treasury yields are slipping after a disappointing Durable-goods report for last month. Investors are looking at a pattern of under-performing economic data which is supporting some doubts around Fed messaging on recent inflation numbers. Commentary from Fed officials tend to describe this as temporary, but continuing disappointments in economic reports appear to work against that perspective to some degree. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is currently down 1.18% at 2.13%. Bond prices and yields are typically inversely related to one another.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see incrementally building positive movement in our 10-day prediction window. We see vector figures moving from +0.32% today to +0.92% in three trading sessions.  The ETF is currently priced at $128.38- up 0.47% from the open. The predicted close today is $128.32 with a low and high of $127.78 (± 0.23) and $128.32 (± 0.23), respectively.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently down 1.30% at 9.89, and our 10-day prediction window shows overall negative signals. The predicted close today is 9.97 with a negative vector of -1.34%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 9.48 (± 0.28) and 10.20 (± 0.30), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.