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After closing lower last week, U.S. benchmarks continued the downward trend as all three major U.S. indices closed in the green, with the Dow seeing the biggest losses at 2%. Along with the rise in the delta variant of the COVID virus, tension with China is once more impacting markets as U.S. Democrats look to increase annual taxes on China while the latest major cybersecurity hack, at Microsoft, was linked back to China by both U.S. and E.U. leaders. Airlines stocks saw shares drop today while Robinhood set terms for their initial public offerings. IBM will headline earnings releases as they are set to release their quarterly report after market close Monday while Philip Morris, Chipotle Mexican Grill, and United Airlines are due on Tuesday. HAL, NFLX, and JNJ are key earnings announcements this week that can potentially influence the market direction. With the new strand of the virus starting to impact worldwide markets, the VIX has reached 25 level. Variant and vaccine rates will continue to impact markets in the coming weeks as well as the start of the latest earnings season. Next week, the Federal Open Market Committee will meet again to discuss and decide on the current interest rates. Please watch the critical support levels on the SPY at $417 and $400. The market has started trading in a downtrend and we do expect a short-term correction to continue in the next two weeks. Globally, both European and Asian markets traded significantly lower. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Upcoming Earnings:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT). TLT is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $151.46 with a vector of -0.09% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does NOT have a position in the featured symbol, TLT. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $66.61 per barrel, down 7.24% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $45.84 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.09% at $1813.30 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $169.61 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.13% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.344% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.977% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.5 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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