Economic data overcomes political uncertainty as major indexes recuperate from Monday’s losses

Major U.S stock indexes are seeing a rebound from Monday’s slides, following positive gains at the close on Tuesday and a round of better-than-expected economic data. A report from the Conference Board showed its consumer confidence index reaching 125.6 in March- a 16-year high. The index had been at 116.1 in February. Although political turmoil and a lack of Republican lock-step in policy advancement introduced uncertainty into markets, we do see that has not appeared to adversely impact consumer confidence across regional and income groups.   

The Dow is currently down 0.31% at 20,637. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.10% at 5,881 and the S&P 500 is currently trading at 2,358 which is down 0.04% from the open.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows downward movement building incrementally each trading session. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.17% continues past -1.16% in the next two trading sessions. Today’s support and resistance is 2,322.21 (± 3.42) and 2,358.57 (± 3.48), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,344.68.   

Oil

The crude oil markets saw a change today following news that U.S. distillate stockpiles and gasoline supplies had declined. The data from the Energy Information Administration also showed continued rises in U.S crude supplies. There was a spike in crude prices on Tuesday due to Libyan pipelines being shut down by an armed group, stemming from a conflict over wages. This effectively disrupted the production of  250,000 barrels per day. West Texas Intermediate for May delivery is currently priced at $49.29 per barrel, up 1.84% from the open.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows downward figures hovering around-0.20% before positive corrections occur in the last four sessions. The fund is currently trading at $10.37, which is up 2.17% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $10.03 (± 0.06) and resistance at $10.19 (± 0.06). The predicted close for today is $10.12. Vector figures show -0.21% for today, jumping to -0.52% tomorrow, then gradually easing into positive corrections. All vector figures are based on today’s market conditions.  

Gold

The price for April gold is down 0.31% at $1,251.70 a troy ounce. This is due to several factors: a strengthened dollar, rising bond yields and overvalued sectors of the stock markets. The ICE U.S dollar index is now above 100.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows a three sessions of negative movement followed by a solid block of positive corrections. The gold proxy is currently trading at $119.18, up 0.12% from the open. Today’s predicted low is $118.56 (± 0.31) and the predicted high is $120.03 (± 0.31). The predicted close today is $119.18. Relative to today’s conditions, vectors shift from -0.12% today to +0.40% within three trading sessions. Positive vectors ease, but hold, throughout the rest of the prediction window.  

Treasuries

The yield on the 10-year Treasury note had been gaining toward 2.45% today before sliding back below 2.40%- in a reaction to Tuesday’s optimistic economic data. The approaching formal request from Great Britain to exit the EU this week is countering those gains, however, by reviving geopolitical uncertainty. The 10-year yield is currently at 2.39%, down 1.34% from the open. Yields move inversely to bond prices.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals building incrementally in our 10-day prediction window. Relative to today’s conditions, we see vector figures climbing from +0.10% today to pass +1.50% in four trading sessions.  The ETF is currently priced at $121.18- up 0.46% from the open. The predicted close today is $121.41 with a low and high of $120.62 (± 0.27) and $122.55 (± 0.27), respectively.  

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) has returned to relatively normal levels and is currently down 2.69% from the open at 11.22. Relative to today’s conditions, the 10-day prediction window shows strong signals for positive movement. The predicted close today is 11.65 with a positive vector of +0.16%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 11.50 (± 0.17) and 13.38 (± 0.20), respectively.

Other News

Amazon’s (AMZN) share price is currently up 1.56% after an announcement that it will acquire Dubai-based Souq.com in a deal worth approximately $700 million. The move is a signal of Amazon’s venture into a growing Middle Eastern e-commerce market.

Darden Restaurants Inc. (DRI) saw its stock jump 9.3% following better-than-expected earnings reports. The parent company of the Olive Garden restaurants has also announced it will be acquiring a 165-restaurant chain called Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen. The deal is estimated to be worth $780 million.