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Markets traded higher this morning with all three major U.S indices in the green, only to turn mixed in the afternoon with the Nasdaq slightly lower. Fed Chair Jerome Powell met with the Joint Economic Committee of Congress today to discuss the latest monetary policy updates and future plans for the Fed, signaling no further rate changes for the time being. This was the first of two congressional appearances by Powell this week, having thus far outlined economic growth, labor market, and inflation level as key Fed influences in his published remarks. Last month’s Core CPI, released today, showed a slight increase while later today we will see earnings data from Cisco. Walmart earnings are due tomorrow along with October’s Producer Price Index and the second congressional appearance by Fed Chair Powell. With little evidence the market will retest 200 days MA, we will look to buy when the SPY is near $297. Having recently broken through 52 weeks high, overhead resistance for the SPY sits near $310. Shallow pullbacks and further volatility are expected. We encourage Market Commentary readers maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
After initially rising behind the news of the U.S.-China “phase one” deal, sentiment has since wavered with conflicting reports that have both supported and weighed on optimism. The latest positive report saw both sides agreeing to curb certain tariffs and phase out future ones as well. Currently, both sides continue to search for a new venue and time to finalize the first part of the trade deal, which many presume will take another two or three agreements. Global markets were little changed with European and Asian markets closing in the red, however, the Hong Kong market closed significantly lower. With continued tension in Hong Kong, look for additional development on both trade and political fronts to dictate global markets.
In D.C., Fed Chair Jerome Powell met with the Joint Economic Committee of Congress as the first of two congressional testimonies the Fed chair is due at. The discussion will focus on the latest rate cuts, having just had its third one in a row, as well as future outlook for the Fed. Powell indicated, both in Congress and in his published remarks before his appearance, the Fed is not looking to modify the monetary policy, for the time being, likely indicating no rate change in the upcoming FOMC. After the market close today, look for Cisco earnings while tomorrow data from Walmart will headline earnings data. Today’s Core CPI report showed a slight increase last month; on Friday lookout for October Retail Sales data as well as Industrial Production and Business Inventories.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.07% moves to +0.51% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On October 31st, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading. Signals are meant to last for 1-2 days as long as vector confirms the same direction as the original pick
Trade Breakdown
ITW entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $170.21 (± 1.03) in its first hour of trading the following trading day (11/1/19) and passed through its Target price of $171.91 in the first hour of trading the next day (11/2/19). The Stop Loss price was set at $168.51.
*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, ANTM. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Anthem Inc. (ANTM). ANTM is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $285.04 at the time of publication, up 2.11% from the open with a +0.47% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $57.27 per barrel, up 0.83% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.96 at the time of publication, up 0.76% from the open. Vector figures show -0.80% today, which turns -1.44% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.70% at $1,463.80 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $137.87, up 0.32% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.05% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.81% at 1.88% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 2.06% at 2.36% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.19% moves to +0.73% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 3.15% at $13.08 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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