Fed Meeting Continues Busy Week as Two-Day Meeting Begins

Another big market event looks to be overshadowed as investors turn their focus from the North Korea Summit to the Fed Reserve two-day meeting which kicks off today. Another interest rate hike is expected but confirmation on the matter will not come until tomorrow. Today, markets look to inch higher but not by much as once again market reaction seems to have stalled in anticipation for the next possible market-rocking event. While the G-7 meeting provided plenty of fuel to fire that is the looming possibility of a trade war as tariffs and have continued to be exercised on both sides, the market was lukewarm to react as all eyes were on President Trump and North Korean Leader Kim Jong Un historic meeting. The meeting, though brief, was historic and a first for the secluded nation. The two leaders signed a joint agreement pledging to work toward complete denuclearization of the Korean peninsula. As the market reacts to this news and prepares for the Fed Reserve meeting investors should continue selling into the rallies and monitor updates for market direction in my Seasonal Charts, Stock Forecast Toolbox predictions, and selective stock direction inTradespoon Bulls and Bears, as these tools are constantly adapting to the ever-changing market conditions.

Tomorrow, the Fed Reserve meeting is set to conclude and we are expecting another interest rate hike from Chairman Jerome Powell. Similarly, Euro Central Bank policymakers are set to meet Thursday and both meetings should affect domestic and global markets. U.S. Consumer Price-Index rose in May by 0.2%, its fast since 2012. Globally, European and Asian markets remain calm after the North Korean summit, however, both gold and the dollar look to trade lower today for the U.S., though not by much.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mostly signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.03% moves to 0.04% in three trading sessions, before dipping further into positive territory. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,753.64 (±6.93) and 2,809.35 (± 6.97), respectively. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,768.00. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On June 8th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Capital One Financial Corporation (COF). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.

Trade Breakdown

COF hit Entry 1 price range of $96.08 (± 0.85) in its second hour of trading and moved through its Target Price of $97.04 in its first hour of trading the following trading session, reaching a high of $97.29. The Stop Loss was set at $95.12.

Wednesday Morning Featured Stock

Our featured stock for Tuesday is  Activision Blizzard, Inc. (ATVI). ATVI is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B)– indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.46% in one trading session which then incrementally builds throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

The stock is trading at $75.36 at the time of publication, up 0.48% from the open with a +0.53% vector figure.

Wednesday’s prediction shows an open price of $75.30, a low of 75.10 and a high of $76.78

The predicted close for Wednesday is $76.19. Vector figures stay positive and drive upward from there. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

Oil

Oil prices continued to rise with Brent crude trading lower. According to OPEC, output was up in May for the U.S. and Saudi Arabia while down for Venezuela, Libya, and Nigeria. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery (CLN8) is priced at $66.44 per barrel, up .48% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mostly all negative signals. The fund is trading at $13.38 at the time of publication, up .15% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $13.04 and resistance at $13.52. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.28. Vector figures show 0.32% today, which turns -0.53% in two trading sessions.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

The price for August gold (GCQ8) is down 0.05% at $1,302.40 at the time of publication. After the non-controversial meeting with North Korea, gold inched lowered. Lower geopolitical risk can sometimes be good for the commodity but that is not the case currently as both gold and the dollar lowered on Tuesday; these two should be affected with more news from the Fed Reserve meeting coming up.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $122.84 down .32% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $122.62 and the predicted high is $123.12. The predicted close for tomorrow is $122.93. Vector signals show -0.05% for today, reaching -0.48% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

Two-day Fed meeting began today and while more information will be revealed from this meeting tomorrow, investors are expecting an interest rate hike and have begun factoring it into their predictions. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up .34% at 2.96% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.45% moves to 0.01% in four trading sessions before going further into positive territory. The ETF is priced at $119.41 at the time of publication, up 0.08%. The predicted close tomorrow is $117.90 with a low and high of $117.89 and $119.32, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 3.05% at 13.05 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 11.49 with a vector of -6.48%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 10.32 and 12.00, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.