RoboStreet – April 30, 2020
Great Finish To A Wild Month
After the month of March was the worst for the market since 2014, the month of April will turn in the best performance since 2014. It’s been the shortest recession in history as the S&P 500 is now only 14.7% off its all-time high, restoring 20% of the 35% hit from top to bottom. A truly incredible performance fully fueled by the Fed.
Markets were able to stage an impressive rally this week on upbeat earnings news from Google, Facebook, Microsoft, and promising results from a government-run study of remdesivir. SPY briefly was able to trade above $286 level and reach $295 level on SPY (close to 200-day MA). VIX and the US dollar continues to sell-off.
At this point, I expect only shallow pullbacks and it is only a matter of time for SPY to trade above 200-day MA. Small-Cap stocks, Technology, Banks, Industrials led the market this week.
And remember we’re not talking about day-trading here. I’m looking for 50-100% gains inside of the next 3 months, so my weekly updates are timely enough for you to act.
I expect the market volatility and the three percent daily market moves to persist. At this point, I do believe we have set the bottom (market can overshoot support and resistance levels especially when VIX is elevated).
I believe the worst part of the sell-off is behind us. My strategy is to aggressively buy any market corrections. Based on our models, the market (SPY) will trade in the range between $270 and $310 for the next 4 weeks.
The Fed met this week and reiterated they are prepared to use the full weight of their power to create however much fiscal stimulus it will take to revive the economy. It’s a powerful statement coming from Fed Chair Powell in his virtual post-FOMC press conference that sends a very bullish message to equity markets.
There is little debate that leading stocks may have come too far, too fast, but any bouts of selling look to be well contained at this point. The market is fully aware of the dismal data crossing the tape now and what will be through much of May. However, investors are warming to the idea that a V-shaped recovery is not just happy talk, but a plausible scenario as momentum to reopen businesses by many states takes hold.
The bigger catalyst this week for stocks was news of Gilead Sciences (GILD) breakthrough drug remdesivir becoming the first drug to show clear-cut effects in treating COVID-19. The studies being conducted on over 1,100 patients by the University of Chicago hospital system are producing very optimistic results.
Dr. Anthony Fauci told White House reporters”The data shows that remdesivir has a clear-cut, significant, positive effect in diminishing the time to recovery.” The trial, which was done by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID), indicated that patients on the drug had a 31 percent faster time to recovery than those on a placebo.
Gilead Sciences shows up strong on my AI platform where the stock carries an “A” model rating, indicating the stock should challenge and take out the 52-week high of $85.97 in the near term. And why not? The company has a lot of headline momentum to print in the coming days.
Looking at the six-month chart, shares of GILD are elevated just above their 20-day moving average. Ideally, we want to own the stock closer to $79 on a bad couple of days for the market. And I’m looking to get long GILD when my short-term indicators say so.
And remember we’re not talking about day-trading here. I’m looking for 50-100% gains inside of the next 3 months, so my weekly updates are timely enough for you to act.
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