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Recession concerns continue to mount as the Dow dropped nearly 800 points and the S&P 500 approached bear market territory. All three major U.S. indices closed in the red following last week’s disappointing CPI data. The key inflation indicator, the consumer-price index, hit a 40-year high at 8.6 % year-over-year. Investors are looking ahead to this week’s Fed decision, which will be announced on Wednesday after the two-day Federal Open Market meeting concludes. Long-term Treasury yields once again boomed as the 10-year note hit 3.386%. Also occurring last week, the European Central Bank did not announce a change, however, did imply their intent to follow the U.S. Fed moves in the next few months. Elsewhere, cryptocurrencies were hit hard last week like this week, dropping below key support levels and seeing market-wide selloffs. Globally, both European and Asian markets sold off to start the week, closing unanimously in the red.
The earnings of $ADBE, $ORCL, and $KR this week, as well as the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rates, are all indicators that may have an influence on the market’s next move. The $VIX is presently trading around the 25 mark and we are watching the overhead resistance levels in the SPY, which are presently at $396 and then $420. The $SPY support is at $375 and then $360. We expect the market to start the bottoming process this week. In the short term, the market is extremely oversold and due for a rebound in the next few sessions. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, QQQ. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $120.86 per barrel, up 0.13%, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $88.39 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 2.75% at $1824.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $171.82 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.21% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 3.378% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 3.363% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $25.07 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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