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After the Federal Reserve unleashed its first interest rate increase in over two years, stocks returned gains, but still finished in the green, as investors worried about future rate hikes and balance-sheet reduction. All three major U.S. indices booked gains, with the Nasdaq up 2.33%, following the conclusion of the two-day Federal Open Market Committee meeting. In an effort to tighten monetary conditions in order to control inflation, the Federal Reserve’s policy statement also revealed the possibility of seven rate hikes this year, as well as the start of balance sheet reduction at a later meeting. Market sentiment also monitored developments in Ukraine and the plunge in oil prices from recent highs. The latest retail report showed sales at U.S. retailers slowed dramatically in February, increasing by just 0.3%, and Americans likely purchased fewer items like food, electronics, and furniture after taking into account high inflation. This came in slightly below expectations.
With the FOMC behind us, market focus turns to the geopolitical risks in Ukraine and the PPI data, as well as any continued reaction to the Fed meeting this week, which can impact the next move in the market. We are watching the vital support levels in the SPY, which are presently at $420 and then $400. With the $VIX is trading near the 26 level, the $SPY overhead resistance is at $445. We expect the market to pull back further in the next two weeks. Globally, Asian and European markets finished in the green apart from Russia and the Shanghai Composite in China. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $23.11 with a vector of -1.17% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, slv. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $94.77 per barrel, down 1.76% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $68.63 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.18% at $1926.70 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $180.01 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.58% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 2.166% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.447% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $26.73 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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