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Looking at the current market conditions and how to prepare for the next market move, we are watching the $VIX which is trading near the 30 level. The $BABA, $NVDA, and $MRVL earnings this week can influence the next move in the market. We are also watching the overhead resistance levels in the SPY, which are presently at $396 and then $410. The $SPY support is at $385 and then $380. We expect the market to continue the bottoming process for the next 1-2 weeks. In the short term, the market is oversold and due for a rebound. Following the release of the latest Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting minutes, U.S. stocks closed higher today.
All three major U.S. indices finished in the green today, with the Dow posting a 4-session win streak. Markets were supported by the signaled flexibility of the Fed which was noted in the latest FOMC minutes. The central bank remained open to adjusting its aggressive plan to raise rates as a response to inflation. Still, high inflation remains a key focus and the Fed will look to improve financial conditions. A half-a-percentage raise in the next two meetings are seen as very likely while also noted in the minutes was the bank’s intent to reduce its $9 trillion balance sheet. Globally, Asian markets finished with mixed results while European markets closed in the green. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, FCX. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $110.76 per barrel, up 0.90%, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $82.48 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.71% at $1852.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $173.08 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.22% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 2.751% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.971% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $28.48 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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