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We expect a short-term correction to continue in the next two weeks as the market has started showing signs of trading in a downtrend. Please watch the critical support levels on the SPY at $434 and $422. U.S. stocks predominantly traded lower as all three major U.S. indices closed in the red. Currently, the VIX is trading near the 18-21 level as the new strand of the virus continues to impact volatility in the market. Key earnings announcements this week that can impact the market include WMT, CSCO, and TGT. Globally, Asian markets traded higher while European markets closed to mixed results. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Markets sold off throughout the day as several record streaks were snapped for major U.S. indices. The latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes were released which showed a Fed further discussing the possibility of pulling back the monetary easing policy the central bank as set forth since lockdowns began. This, along with a reduction in the asset purchasing program, are potential moves the Fed discussed while stressing inflation and vaccination rates. COVID infections rate continue to climb both in the U.S. and globally as delta variants of the virus spike. Immunocompromised groups are beginning to receive clearance for a third dose of the vaccine while several cities have re-mandated masks. Tension in the Middle East remains following the Afghani government falling to Taliban forces causing country-wide evacuations by global citizens residing in Afghanistan while additional global response is yet to be determined.
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Upcoming Earnings:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Thursday is iPath S&P VIX Short Term Futures (VXX). VXX is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $27.2 with a vector of -0.73% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, VXX. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $64.51 per barrel, down 3.12% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $48.85 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.12% at $1789.90 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $169.49 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.14% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 1.276% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.933% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $21.57 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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