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Stock prices rose Wednesday after Federal Reserve minutes suggested that the Fed will raise interest rates again in during this month’s meeting to combat inflation. Despite concerns about slowing economic growth, the Federal Reserve’s June policy meeting minutes indicated that another large interest rate increase is likely later this month, providing some support for markets. All three major U.S. indices closed in the green following the release of the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes. Fed officials noted, in the minutes, that policy tightening might slow GDP growth for a while, but they would also anticipate returning inflation to 2%, which would be critical to sustaining maximum employment on a long-term basis. Inflation concerns remain at the forefront of investor interest while focus turns to the upcoming earnings season and employment data.
Also taking place today, Treasury bond yields inverted once again, with the 2-year yield rising above the 10-year yield. The $VIX is trading near the 30 level and the focus turns to earnings season following today’s FOMC release. The $JPM, $DAL, and $PEP earnings next week, and June unemployment data on Friday can influence the next move in the market. We are watching the overhead resistance levels in the SPY, which are presently at $396 and then $409. The $SPY support is at $380 and then $362. We expect the market to continue the short-term rally for the next couple of weeks. Oil and Gold traded lower today, as well as Bitcoin, while the dollar moved higher. Globally, Asian markets traded lower while European markets traded in the green today. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, AAPL. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $98.58 per barrel, down 0.92%, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $74.78 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 1.45% at $1738.40 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $164.75 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.36% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 2.932% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 3.130% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $26.73 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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