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Markets are trading lower as impeachment concerns continue to weigh on U.S. stocks with the first day of testimonies beginning in D.C. today. On the global trade front, President Trump’s latest comments indicate a deal with China could happen “sooner” than presumed while a trade deal with Japan to buy goods was recently announced. Second-Quarter GDP revisions returned unchanged while U.S. trade deficit widened in August to $72.8 billion, slightly below expectations. With the SPY currently trading between $294-302, we believe the market is range-bound and we do not see potential for the market to overshoot all-time high of $302. Short-term support remains near $295, or 50-days MA on SPY, and we will look to buy when SPY is near $282 and sell near $300. With further volatility expected, we encourage maintaining clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
All three major U.S. indices are on track to close in the red following the first day of testimony in D.C. The formal impeachment inquiry was filed by Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi on Tuesday and called to question recent calls President Trump had with the Ukrainian President. Today, Joseph Maguire, active director of national intelligence, will testify. While yesterday concern of long term effect on stocks seemed to have eased, today stocks are reacting poorly as the U.S. House Intelligence Committee testimony progresses. It is unclear how impeachment proceedings, which are typically lengthy, will affect trade talks and negotiations coming up next month.
Progress between the U.S. and China has remained light leading up to next month’s meeting between both nation’s top trade reps. Recently, Trump stated a deal could be worked out sooner than expected while the latest Huawei ban could be extended. Also recently developing, a U.S. and Japan trade deal to purchase goods was recently signed. Globally, European markets closed in the green while Asian markets were mixed. GDP revisions returned unchanged for Q2 while real estate data was up. Durable goods, personal income, consumer spending, and core inflation data for August will release tomorrow while next week looks for foreign trade deficit data and Pepsico earnings.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.04% moves to -1.12% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On September 6th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for TJX Companies (TJX). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
TJX entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $55.77 (± 0.38) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $56.33 in the first hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $55.21
*Please note: At the time of publication we do own the featured symbol, NDAQ. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Friday is Nasdaq Inc. (NDAQ). NDAQ is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $102.02 at the time of publication, down 0.72% from the open with a +0.90% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $56.49 per barrel, up 0.02% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $11.77 at the time of publication, down 0.25% from the open. Vector figures show +0.90% today, which turns +0.55% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.26% at $1,516.30 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $142.12, up 0.20% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -1.97% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 2.79% at 1.69% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 2.66% at 2.13% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.12% moves to +3.11% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 0.44% at $16.03 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $16.96 with a vector of -2.32%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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