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Although markets opened the shortened trade week to mixed results, all three major U.S. indices are trading slightly higher today. To start the week, Congress passed the second economic stimulus package of the year as well as the latest Federal spending bill. Both bills improved market sentiment and provided optimism heading into the new year but still face some uncertainty with President Trump’s latest remarks. Elsewhere, the COVID vaccine continues to be dispersed throughout the U.S. while the infection rate, for the most part, remains high. Globally, Asian and European markets closed higher; international focus remains on the potential for another strain of the COVID virus as well as the latest between the U.K. and E.U., with the latter having some reported progress as both sides appear close to a deal. As mentioned previously, economic reports are light this week while on Thursday markets will be opened for a shortened trading session and closed on Friday in observance of the Christmas holiday. The SPY could be on its way to retest recent highs with continued strong rotation from growth to value stocks. Until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting SPY to trade in the range of $354-$380. With the market prone to further corrections, the next level of support is set at $354. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Consumer Sentiment Index (December) – Wednesday
Weekly Jobless Claims (12/19) – Wednesday
Personal Income (November) – Wednesday
Consumer Spending (November) – Wednesday
Core Inflation (November) – Wednesday
New House Sales (November) – Wednesday
Early Market Close (1 PM ET) – Thursday
Christmas Day Holiday (Markets Closed) – Friday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Morgan Stanley (MS). MS is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, MS. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $48.30 per barrel, up 2.76% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $32.9 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.44% at $1878.70 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $175.83, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.10% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.916% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.654% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.51 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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