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With trade war fears finally catching up to markets as we’ve seen in the last few days, stocks opened higher today. My continued assumption is that the market is overbought, this should guide strategic investors to sell into the rallies and buy into the dips by monitoring 50-day moving averages and my Seasonal Charts. Although all three major U.S. indices opened higher today, the Dow Jones has taken a sound shift into red and is currently down .20%. This would mark the seventh straight day the Dow has done so. Trade war fears over the Chinese tariffs that have been lobbed back and forth are surely pressuring both U.S. and global assets.
The S&P and Nasdaq both look to make slim gains for the day after a big Tuesday selloff and while the Dow has looked to take the brunt of the hit the S&P and Nasdaq both took losses so today’s positive actions, though slight, is welcomed. In other major index news, Walgreen’s stock will replace GE’s spot in the Dow Jones, the second swap of that nature in the last 12-months. This also caused GE to trade slightly lower. Oracle is trading lower today, following an initial drop yesterday, as its earnings did not match expected growth and provided more doubt than optimism in the company’s future. Currently, Oracle shares are down just over 7% for the day.
Other big moves today saw Disney countering Comcast’s attempt at outbidding them for Fox by coming in with an even larger lump sum of cash to buy the struggling entertainment conglomerate. This move surely shot Fox up 7% while keeping Disney and Comcast mostly flat. It looks as though this bidding war could just be getting started. Some other big-name movers saw PayPal stock up 2% with its acquisition of Hyperwallet while Starbucks down 8% after it announced a larger than expected number of stores shutting down in it’s already over-crowded U.S. market.
European markets are modestly up today, while the dollar and Chinese markets are both down. If trade war fears continue, or further tariffs get instilled, expect more of the same form U.S. and Chinese markets. Though both have shown resilience neither could or would want to sustain such volatility.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.05% moves to -0.32% in four trading sessions. Tomorrow’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,762.50 and 2,788.30, respectively. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,769.68. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On June 18th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for CA Inc. (CA). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
CA opened near Entry 1 price range of $36.73 (± 0.13) in its first hour of trading and moved through its Target Price of $37.10 in its second hour of trading. The Stop Loss was set at $36.36.
Our featured stock for Thursday is The Southern Company. (SO). SO is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (C)– indicating it ranks in the top 50th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.48% in eight trading sessions which then incrementally builds throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $45.17 at the time of publication, up 0.24% from the open with a +0.11% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $44.43, a low of $44.33 and a high of $45.56.
The predicted close for Thursday is $44.66. Vector figures turn positive and drive upward in seven days. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil prices rose although U.S. weekly supplies had one of its biggest weekly declines of the year. All eyes are on Friday’s OPEC meeting for more prominent news on the commodity. West Texas Intermediate for July delivery (CLN8) is priced at $65.52 per barrel, up 0.69% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows all positive signals. The fund is trading at $13.15 at the time of publication, down 0.75% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $12.91 and resistance at $13.28. The predicted close for tomorrow is $12.92. Vector figures show -0.93% today, which turns -3.36% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold futures declined and looked to mimic previous 2018 dips where we are at an almost 12-month low. Again, oddly enough gold futures are moving with the dollar, and not inversely as they often do, and are trading lower. The price for August gold (GCQ8) is down .26% at $1,275.60 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly all positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $120.39, down .34% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $120.84 and the predicted high is $121.64. The predicted close for tomorrow is $121.23. Vector signals show 0.12% for today, reaching 0.35% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Bond yields are on the rise today behind comments from Fed Chairman Powell indicating the inflation worries of the 1970s are not the same of those today and our tighter labor market and increased moved at prevention of a blooming inflation will surely prevent one. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.63% at 2.92% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.59% at 3.05% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see almost all negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.18% moves to -1.31% in two trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $120.03 at the time of publication, down 0.78%. The predicted close tomorrow is $120.78 with a low and high of $119.73 and $121.00, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 7.04% at 12.41 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 13.70 with a vector of 10.59%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 13.03 and 14.84, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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