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U.S. Markets are lowering today behind continued signs of slowing global economic growth in 2019. China-U.S. trade negotiations are set to resume in Beijing tomorrow while Brexit talks remain prominent through the end of the month. Recent statements from the European Central Bank and today’s testimony from Aviation Regulators to Congress regarding the two recent Boeing crashes could also impact markets. Lululemon is set to report earnings after market close while Apple and Qualcomm continue their legal battles, each notching recent victories while 80 other patent lawsuits remain. The S&P is trading above its 200-day moving average but could retrace to $268 level if we drop below the $275, the current 200-day M.A. level. Although we remain bullish in the long-term, we encourage our members to continue monitoring seasonal charts. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
All three major U.S indices are on track to close in the red today behind poor U.S. housing data and struggling global markets. With both home prices and housing starts significantly at multi-month lows last month, and the current downswing of interest rates, many are expecting a small boost of buyers and builders in the near future. Likewise, homebuilder company stocks, such as LGIH and KBH, have gained significantly. Look for weekly jobless claims and GDP revision data tomorrow while Friday will feature core inflation and consumer spending reports for the month of January, delayed by the previous government shutdown.
U.S.-China trade negotiations are due to resume tomorrow with top officials, Lighthizer and Mnuchin, meeting with China Vice Premier Liu He. Asian markets closed split today while European markets closed lower. Key Brexit vote will take place tonight to determine rival plans while Prime Minister May will hold a vote on her plan, possibly Friday. Just recently May announced she would be stepping down after Brexit is through. Look for more on this tomorrow, as results of the rival plan vote is set to release after U.S. markets close or 9:00 PM GMT. Another major development is the European Central Bank announcement that they are willing to delay interest rate hikes if necessary. ECP President Mario Draghi reiterated this and stated, only if needed, the ECB would not be afraid to delay planned rate hikes just as they did in March.
Apple and Qualcomm continue their patent back-and-forth with recent victories for each company. U.S. International Trades Committee ruled against Qualcomm patent suit over the energy-saving batteries featured in iPhones while a separate trade judge ruled against older sales of iPhones, leading to possible banning of in the near future. Lenner released earnings this morning which helped boost the homebuilder stock while Lululemon is trading slightly higher ahead of their after-market hours earnings release. Nissan Motor Company and PetroChina, China’s second-biggest oil producer, are due to release earnings tomorrow.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.43% moves to -0.09% in four trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,926.72. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On March 12th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Apple Inc (AAPL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
AAPL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $178.90 (± 1.01) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $180.69 in the first hour of trading, reaching a high of 181.98. The Stop Loss price was set at $177.11.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured stock for Thursday is Starbucks (SBUX). SBUX is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $72.74 at the time of publication, with a +0.47% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for May delivery (CLK9) is priced at $59.37 per barrel, down 0.97% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.33 at the time of publication, down 1.00% from the open. Vector figures show -0.67% today, which turns -0.48% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for June gold (GCM9) is down 0.54% at $1,314.20 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $123.69. Vector signals show +0.00% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.79% at 2.38% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 1.80% at 2.82% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.28% moves to -0.05% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session. ‘
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 5.79% at $15.53 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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