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Major U.S. indices are mostly muted today, trading slight gains and slight losses in early morning trading. Several big-name banks are due to release their second-quarter corporate earnings this week, first up is Citigroup which reported before market open today. Look for Charles Schwab after market close today, while JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo report tomorrow. On Wednesday we will see Bank of America, PNC Financial, and Netflix earnings as well as the Federal Reserve Beige Book. Rounding out the week in major reports will be Morgan Stanley, Capital One, American Express, and Microsoft. Amazon Prime Day kicks off today while several groups of workers in both the U.S. and Europe are planning strikes. The SPY has remained at an all-time high level and we encourage readers to consider buying near $290 level and avoid chasing near $300. All eyes this week are on big-name second-quarter corporate earnings which could affect markets but we do not see market momentum pushing SPY above much higher than $300, potentially overshooting to $305. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Citigroup kicked off major earnings season with somewhat impressive returns that beat expectations but still managed to underwhelm investors, sending shares slightly lower. Compared to last year’s second-quarter earnings, Citi managed to grow over 7%, however, their latest reported did not meet the reduction in operation cuts initiative they had set out for and were not able to lower that number by 2%. Major earnings continue today after market close with Charles Schwab reporting after the market closes today while tomorrow we will see the bank triple-header of Chase, Goldman Sachs, and Wells Fargo report, along with Johnson & Johnson as well as United Airlines. Two other major reports to look out for this week include Netflix and Microsoft which will surely impact markets while Wednesday’s Beige Book will give a good reading of the current state of the economy. Tomorrow, Facebook heads to D.C. to defend its cryptocurrency initiative for a two-day testimony. Also look out for retail sales data, import price index, and industrial production data to release tomorrow.
Overseas, European markets closed modestly higher while Asian markets also closed in the green. Still, cause for concern has risen in China with the nation reporting its weakest economic pace in the last 20 years, so far this quarter only rising 6% compared to last year. Markets were likely able to close in the green on the backs of better than expected retail sales and factory output in the month of June. Beyond the current Iran conflict which has global attention, a U.S.-Taiwan deal for weapons ought to be monitored as China has recently declared it will sanction several U.S. companies if the deal goes through.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.25% moves to -0.93% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On June 28th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for CenturyLink Inc (CTL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
CTL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $11.64 (± 0.09) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $11.76 in the fifth hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $11.52.
*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, PG. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Procter & Gamble Co. (PG). PG is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $115.29 at the time of publication, with a +0.64% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $59.64 per barrel, down 0.95% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.35 at the time of publication, down 1.00% from the open. Vector figures show -0.52% today, which turns +1.55% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.13% at $1,413.90 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $133.34, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.20% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.40% at 2.09% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 1.28% at 3.61% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.38% moves to -2.16% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 3.55% at $12.83 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.01 with a vector of +5.96%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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