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Although markets saw several key earnings report return with better than expected results, all three major U.S. indices closed in the red. Inflation concerns have continued to escalate while today’s Housing and Building Permits reports for April underwhelmed, both pressuring U.S. markets. The housing report showed a significant increase in the last month while the annual rate of permits also significantly decreased. Major retailers have commanded earnings news this week with Home Depot reporting today and providing an initial boost to markets, as Walmart and Macy’s also reported positive earnings. The dollar and oil futures saw downward movement today while long-term U.S. Treasury yields also dipped. Gold futures received a slight boost, as gold traditionally trades inversely from the dollar. Tomorrow, investors should look out for the latest Federal Open Market Committee minutes to release as well as Cisco, Lowe’s, and Target earnings; Applied Materials, Kohl’s, and Deere will wrap up the week in key earnings releases. Globally, Asian markets traded impressively higher while European markets saw mixed results. The $SPY broke below key mid-term support at $410. QQQ has been trading below the 50-day moving average for a few sessions and the market is getting close to an oversold level. The next key support level is near $400, 60-days moving average. At this point, the top is set at $425 and I encourage users to consider selling into market rebounds. Our models are projecting the $SPY to trade in the range of $397-$410 for the next 6 weeks, following the latest rebound and slowing momentum behind treasury and currency markets. The $SPY has reached our target of $415-$425 based on the 6-month forecast from our Stock Forecast Toolbox and we encourage readers to raise cash at this point. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Upcoming Earnings:
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Our featured symbol for Wednesday is Emerson Electric Company (EMR). EMR is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast.
The stock is trading at $94.22 with a vector of -0.47% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, EMR. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $65.25 per barrel, down 0.37% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $44.66 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.10% at $1869.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $167.27 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.05% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.700% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.415% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $27.59 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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