Markets at standstill ahead of final Fed meeting, uncertainty remains over path to reductions in oil supplies.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is halting its march toward 20,000, although just within reaching distance. The index is currently trading at 19,877.97 which is down 33.24 points, or 0.17%,  after sliding from an earlier high of 19911.44. The Nasdaq-100 is largely stagnant today at 5463.45, down just 0.01%. The S&P 500 is also stalling at 2267.56, down 4.16 points, or 0.18%.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our prediction model produced positive vector movements after today’s stall. The predicted close today is 2279.78, with predicted support and resistance at 2268.83 (± 7.37) and 2298.51 (± 7.47), respectively.  

Upcoming Events & Reports

The last Fed meeting of the year is concluding this afternoon, with an expected quarter-percent rate change of 0.5% to 0.75%. Speaker Yellen is expected to be mute around giving any assumptions or opinions on the incoming Trump administration. It is apparent that a less-hawkish, cautious tone is being set today.

Oil

Oil continues to hover around the $52 mark, following tentative agreements between OPEC and non-OPEC countries to begin cutting production. There are concerns around the path to lower production and how that will be measured, however. OPEC uses independent estimates from third parties, which sometimes contradict their own member-countries figures. With non-OPEC countries, these estimates are even less clear, so there is a general sense of hesitation in the market. Crude oil is currently trading at $52.10, down 0.88, or 1.66%.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows five sessions of downward vector movement, and five sessions of positive reversal. The fund is currently up 0.94% at 11.62. Today’s prediction sees support at 11.52 (± 0.10) and resistance at 11.73 (± 0.10). The predicted close for today is 11.60.  

Gold

Recently released economic data has been lower than expected, driving investment into Gold. Lagging retail sales and underperforming November industrial production are among contributing factors. The non-fiat metal is currently up 0.55% at $1165.40. A less hawkish, cautious outlook from the Fed will inevitably support gold investments, as will a faltering US dollar.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see consistent positive movement, barely breaching 1% during the 10-day prediction window. It is currently trading at 110.87 which is down 0.08, or 0.38%. Today’s predicted low is 110.20 (± 0.42) and the predicted high is 111.22 (± 0.42). The predicted close today is 110.20.

Treasuries

Looking toward higher growth and inflation next year, investors are turning from US Treasury bonds as yields are expected to decrease. It is reported by FactSet data that in the past month, investors have collectively pulled out over $1 billion from TLT. Inversely, we have seen funds invested into industrial and financial stocks and ETFs.  Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see this reflected in the 10-day prediction window.

TLT is currently down 0.06 points, or 0.74% at 119.02. The predicted close today is 118.56 with a low and high of 118.14 (± 0.55) and 119.36 (± 0.56), respectively. Vector movements show high volatility within the next three to four days, followed by consistent selloffs.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is up 0.39% at 12.77 with a consistent positive movement predicted. Our 10-day model shows vector values rising significantly toward 17% at the end of the forecast window. The predicted close today is 12.83. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 12.46 (± 0.28) and 14.35 (± 0.32), respectively.  Predicted 10-day figures show support contained between ~12 and ~14. Predicted resistance stays between ~14 and ~16.