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Following today’s Beige Book release, major U.S. indices closed to mixed results as the Dow Jones and S&P finished in the green while the Nasdaq closed modestly lower. Moderate pace growth and pressure from inflation and labor shortage were reported in the Beige Book. Additional takeaways from the report showed supply-chain bottlenecks have continued and are likely influencing inflation while a steady pace of growth provided optimism. Earnings season remains the main event that can influence the market direction in the coming weeks. NFLX, BK, and JNJ reported earnings yesterday while TSLA, IBM, CSX are set to report after market close today. T, INTC, HON, and AXP earnings announcements are set to release this week and can potentially influence the market direction. Please watch the critical support levels on the SPY at $440 and then at $436 as the bottoming process continues; the $TLT started to rebound and should provide support for the technology stocks and the $SPY. Inflation remains a key concern while the VIX has returned to the $16 level. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $22.53 with a vector of -0.53% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, SLV. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $84.25 per barrel, up 1.55% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $56.18 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.69% at $1782.80 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $163.92 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.13% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 1.660% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 2.134% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $16.31 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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