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On Monday, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite indexes lost ground, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average finished slightly higher, holding on to modest gains. The key news on the economic front is the July consumer-price index, which will be released this week. Market focus is on this week’s consumer-price index data for July since it could lead to expectations for further rate increases. Stocks were unable to preserve earlier advances after all three major stock indexes began higher on Monday, with an influx of pessimism over recent corporate prospects and earnings reports. Last week, the U.S. jobs report shocked and easily topped estimates as over 500,000 jobs were added, far above the 250,000 that were estimated. With this new pre-pandemic level of employment, inflation concerns take the forefront as earnings season winds down.
The volatility index is currently trading near the 22 level. The $AIG, $DIS, and $EMR earnings and the CPI/PPI numbers on Wednesday can influence the next move in the market. Additional earnings to watch out for include Coinbase, Spirit Airlines, Sysco, and Baidu. On Tuesday, look out for Q2 Productivity and Unit Labor Costs reports. We are watching the overhead resistance levels in the SPY, which are presently at $420 and then $430. The $SPY support is at $406 and then $401. We expect the market to continue the short-term rally for the next couple of weeks. Globally, European markets traded impressively higher while Asian markets traded with mixed results. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, SH. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $90.53 per barrel, down 0.25%, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $78.05 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.01% at $1805.50 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $164.1 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.42% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 2.706% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.947% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.84 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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