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The Dow Jones Industrial Average saw a jump near session highs today after the release of Fed FOMC minutes from a January meeting where interest rates were discussed. The DJIA jumped 250 points at one point, and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq also saw post-release gains. Economic data has injected inflation concerns into the equities market, because a rapid move to higher Fed interest rates would detract investor attraction from yield-bearing, riskier assets like stocks. The carefully crafted language of this policy statement essentially avoids raising rates quickly in order to maintain stability in the broader markets. The main forces at play for the time being will be the Fed’s monetary policy, political endeavors from the Trump administration and how those can impact the economy, and the subsequent reaction from other central banks worldwide.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is up 0.32%, or 80.35 points, at 25,046.32. The S&P 500 is at 2,725.99- up 0.40% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.71% at 7,285.90.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.10% moves to +0.69% within four trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,688.51 (±13.58) and 2,743.37 (± 13.86), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,730.60. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On February 14, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for XL Group LTD (XL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
XL opened at 41.83 within the Entry 1 price range $41.89 (± 0.31) in the first hour of trading, proceeding to hit its Target price of $42.31 within the next hour of trading. Within two hours of trading, XL reached a high of $43.60.
Oil
Crude prices are seeing some losses today as investors anticipate inventory data from both the American Petroleum Institute and the Energy Information Administration. Crude supplies had shown smaller than expected gains recently, so this data will serve to gauge the overall broader picture in the oil markets. West Texas Intermediate for April delivery (CLJ8) is priced at $61.56 per barrel at the time of publication, down 0.37% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows overall negative signals. The fund is trading at $12.31 at the time of publication, down 0.63% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $12.33 (± 0.08) and resistance at $12.58 (± 0.08). The predicted close for today is $12.40. Vector figures show -0.02% today, which move to -0.02% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for February gold (GCG8) is up 0.04% at $1,329.30 at the time of publication. The non-fiat metal had seen heavy losses in recent trading days as the U.S. dollar and yields consistently gained. Today, gold prices are seeing modest upward movement as investors parse FOMC minutes for clues around monetary policy and inflation concerns. Gold is typically used as a hedge against inflation, and although the statements do not point to rapid interest rate hikes, there is still guidance around measures being taken to prevent an overheated economy.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows overall negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $126.24, down .17% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $126.24 (± 0.29) and the predicted high is $128.14 (± 0.29). The predicted close today is $127.24. Vector signals show 0.16% for today, moving to -1.74% in the next three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Short-dated treasury yields are fluctuating today after the release of January FOMC minutes, as they are the most reactive to sentiments around interest rate attitudes and monetary policy. Long-dated yields are mostly unchanged but still seeing effects, as the overall sentiment around gradual rate increases has not changed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.90% at 2.94% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see initial negative signals followed by an upward correction in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.24% moves to 0.62% in three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $116.71 at the time of publication, down 1.25%. The predicted close today is $117.84 with a low and high of $117.37 (± 0.22) and $118.22 (± 0.22), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down 11.65% at 18.20 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close is 18.27 with a vector of -4.54%. The predicted lows and highs are 17.48 (± 0.72) and 20.79 (± 0.86), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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