Markets Rally as U.S. Anticipates Beijing Response

U.S stock-market indices were on the rise today, modestly trading higher after a bad streak of trading lower following the trade-tariff escalation between the U.S. and China. Investors should watch for 50-day moving-averages with the markets on the rise today, Bulls want the market to close above the $272 level for SPY which could certainly happen; however if we fail to stay above $272 level, expect a 5% pullback. Monitor Seasonal Charts for support and resistance levels that indicate optimal entry and exit positions. 

All three major indices are looking to stay in the green today as the White House indicated certain pullbacks on the tough tariffs initially set by President Trump. Specifically, regarding Chinese investments in the U.S. tech industries. As Beijing, reportedly, begins planning for a “full-scale” trade war, U.S. bonds look to take the hardest hit with almost all multi-year yields lowering. At the time of publication, the Chinese Yuan is trading slightly lower while the dollar trades slightly higher.

In other news, the U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 3.7% in May while May job reports are signaling a growing workforce with unemployment at an 18-year low at 3.8%, and expected to reach 3.5% by the end of the year. The busy week of Fed official speeches will continue with Vice Chairman Randal Quarles speaking today about international trade regulation, a poignant topic regarding recent trade-war fear escalation.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.39% moves to -1.43% in two trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,702.37 (±4.93) and 2,742.08 (± 5.00), respectively. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,707.57. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On June 26th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for AvalonBay Communities, Inc. (AVB). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.

Trade Breakdown

AVB opened near Entry 1 price range of $170.97 (± 0.51) and moved through its Target Price of $172.68 in its second hour of trading. The Stop Loss was set at $169.26.

Thursday Morning Featured Stock

Our featured stock for Thursday is  Exelon Corporation (EXC). EXC is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.49% in seven trading sessions which then incrementally builds throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

The stock is trading at $42.2 at the time of publication, up .40% from the open with a +0.16% vector figure.

Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $41.92, a low of $41.48 and a high of $42.49.

The predicted close for Thursday is $42.14. Vector figures stay positive and drive upward throughout the 10-day forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

Live Trading Room Update

When the market was down with the recent tariff escalation reaching over $200 billion in tariffs, see how we traded in volatile conditions and what you might expect in our next Live Trading Room. During recent volatility, we held Live Trading Room Session where our winning trades ranged 32.35% to over 60.00% Net Gain!

Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15 am Eastern Time, but Live Trading Room Sessions are only available for Premium Members.

We wanted to share the recording with you so you can see the profits you might be missing- even during very volatile markets.

Click Here to Watch How I Generate Profits During this Volatile Market!

Oil

U.S. oil prices had a strong rally on Wednesday that brought the commodity to trade at its highest since 2014. After falling prices for almost two weeks, crude domestic supplies recorded its biggest weekly drop of the year and fueled prices to trade higher West Texas Intermediate for August delivery (CLQ8) is priced at $73.00 per barrel, up 3.49% from the open, at the time of publication.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows almost all negative signals. The fund is trading at $14.76 at the time of publication, up 3.43% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $13.73 and resistance at $14.29. The predicted close for tomorrow is $14.23. Vector figures show 0.79% today, which turns -1.38% in two trading sessions.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

Although the dollar and gold have oddly traded lower together this week, that trend looks to end today as the dollar pulls up into positive territory while gold trades lower for its third straight session. Global trade fears continue to wear on the usually safe-have commodity. The price for August gold (GCQ8) is down 0.29% at $1,256.30 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $118.865, down .33% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $118.64 and the predicted high is $119.29. The predicted close for tomorrow is $119.12. Vector signals show -0.23% for today, reaching -1.31% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

All multi-year yields are down today as Trump’s tariff policy continues to poorly affect bonds. The end of the month selloff could also be attributed to the underperforming notes, however, with the selloff slightly behind us, geopolitical conflict continues to dictate yield prices. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.36% at 2.85% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 1.43% at 2.98% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mostly negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.02% moves to -0.73% in four trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $122.05 at the time of publication, up 0.86%. The predicted close tomorrow is $120.76 with a low and high of $119.76 and $121.13, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 6.91% at 17.02 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 17.51 with a vector of 5.74%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 15.62 and 19.14, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.