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After three sessions of trading lower, U.S. benchmarks rebounded today behind the news of an additional stimulus package and stabilizing oil markets. On Tuesday, Congress passed another economic relief bill which added nearly $500 billion towards small businesses and an additional $100 billion aimed at health care. Elsewhere, corporate earnings continue to underwhelm amid COVID concern; Delta, AT&T, and Netflix are the latest major earnings to release and see shares significantly lower. Additional earnings to monitor include Intel and 3M tomorrow, Verizon on Friday. We believe the market is still susceptible to a 10-20% selloff and investors should consider hedging portfolios into the rallies. We do not see the market retesting recent lows and could realistically reach 50% retracement on SPY $250-$260 level. It is our opinion the market is overbought in the short term and long-term investors can consider buying equities with dollar-cost averaging in mind. Market Commentary readers are encouraged to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Following yesterday’s passed stimulus deal, markets rose impressively today after seeing several days in the red. The latest stimulus package will help small businesses as well as the sector, focusing on hospitals on COVID testing/vaccine efforts. The latest data shows over 80,000 recoveries reported in the U.S. as opposed to 46,000 deaths and over 830,000 cases. Globally, European markets traded higher while Asian markets were mixed. Earnings continue to show the latest impact of the virus. Netflix saw shares lower following a mostly positive report though concern going forward caused shares to lower today. Elsewhere, oil rebounded today with June futures up over 20%. Both gold and the dollar are moving higher today while U.S. Treasury Yields are slightly up.
Symbols making significant moves today include:
Key U.S. Economic Reports Out This Week:
Key Corporate Earnings Out This Week:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On April 3rd, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Gilead Sciences Inc (GILD). ActiveTrader is included in several Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
Trade Breakdown
GILD entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $76.98(± 0.77) in the second hour of trading that day and passed through its Target price of $77.75 in the fourth hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss price was set at $76.21.
Our featured symbol for Thursday is Equifax Inc. (EFX). EFX is showing a steady vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (C) indicating it ranks in the top 50th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $130.04, with a vector of +0.20% at the time of publication.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, EFX. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $14.11 per barrel, up 21% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $3.75 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.80% at $1,712.40 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $159.7, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.08% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up to 0.615% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up to 1.215% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $43.83 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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