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Markets are on the move up today as the latest in U.S.-China negotiations provided a positive sentiment going forward. All three major U.S. indices are on track to close in the green following President Trump’s comments during the G-7 meeting, in which he stated the Chinese government requested a restart for trade talks. This renewed optimism for the upcoming trade talks following the announcement of more tariffs levied on China last week. Globally, Asian markets closed significantly lower while European markets were mixed. The G-7 meeting continues in France today with a continued focus on Brexit and global trade, as well as the recent announcement of a deal between the U.S. and Japan. We see the potential for the market to overshoot to 50-days MA on SPY which would be around $293-$294 level, while further volatility is expected. SPY support sits at $277-$282 and we encourage selling when the market is near $290 and looking to buy near $278 for the SPY. Market Commentary readers are urged to have clearly defined stop levels for all positions during this period of volatility. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Global trade relations remain in the forefront of market news and continue to control sentiment with all three major U.S. indices lowering on Friday following additional tariff news while today markets are rising off promising comments from both nations’ leaders. President Trump stated, following the first day of the G-7 meeting, that China has come forth asking to restart trade talks. Both China and the U.S. have continued levy tariffs against each other and the next round of talks is scheduled for September. Also making international rounds today is news of a U.S.-Japan deal that is aimed to lower tariffs and support agricultural products and auto exports. The G-7 meeting continues in France as Brexit uncertainty remains one of its biggest concerns.
Earnings and economic reports remain light this week with only several notable releases scheduled. Foreign trade deficit, motor vehicle sales, and factory order data is due to release this week while Hewlett Packard and Best Buy report earnings. Manufacturing data and weekly labor reports will also release later this week. Major market focus will remain on U.S.-China relations as well as Brexit and next month’s FOMC meeting.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.21% moves to +2.67% in five trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,926.72. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 pm, CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On August 16th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Crown Castle International (CCI). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
CCI entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $142.41 (± 0.73) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $143.83 in the first hour of trading the following trading day. The Stop Loss price was set at $137.15
*Please note: At the time of publication we do not own the featured symbol, KMI. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is Kinder Morgan (KMI). KMI is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $19.92 at the time of publication, up 1.79% from the open with a +0.89% vector figure.=
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $53.72 per barrel, down 0.83% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $11.18 at the time of publication, down 0.09% from the open. Vector figures show +1.25% today, which turns -4.01% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.05% at $1,536.80 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $144.04, down 0.09% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.21% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.44% at 1.54% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.67% at 2.04% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.58% moves to -2.77% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 1.71% at $20.21 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $18.16 with a vector of -2.25%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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