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On Monday, the volatility index is trading near $24 level and all three major U.S. indices closed in the red. Following the largest monthly rise in the S&P 500 and Dow industrials since November 2020, the question now turns to whether markets have bottomed or are experiencing a bear-market bounce from June’s steep lows. Last week, stocks closed with nice gains, concluding an impressive turnaround month that saw S&P and Nasdaq gain over 9% while the Dow rose 6.7%. Released today, the Institute for Supply Management announced a manufacturing index of 52.8% in July, down from a reading of 53% in June.
The next market move may be influenced by the $CAT, $DVN, and $ETN earnings this week and the July labor force data. Tomorrow, we will see a large list of earning releases which will be headlined by Advanced Micro Devices, Airbnb, Marathon, Marriot, PayPal, Starbucks, and Uber. The rest of the week will feature Allstate, Booking, CVS, Moderna, Block, AMC, Alibaba, Lyft, and DraftKings. June job openings and quits reports are also due on Tuesday. ISM Service Index and factory order reports are set to release on Wednesday, while key July employment data is scheduled for Thursday.
We are watching the overhead resistance levels in the SPY, which are presently at $420 and then $430. The $SPY support is at $401 and then $390. We expect the market to continue the short-term rally for the next couple of weeks. Globally, Asian markets closed in the green while European markets booked moderate losses. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, SH. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $93.94 per barrel, down 4.73%, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $78.05 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.43% at $1789.40 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $164.1 at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.42% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 2.572% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.918% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.84 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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