Markets somewhat tepid following Macron’s French election victory, following strong April jobs reports on Friday

Market volatility has dropped following Emmanuel Macron’s victory in the French Presidential elections against far-right candidate Marine LePen. Investors had looked to Macron as the stability candidate, as is widely viewed as a centrist who would not cause disturbances to global trade. Le Pen, on the other hand, had advocated for a referendum on France’s EU membership, which would have injected major volatility and uncertainty into the markets.

The Nasdaq-100 and the S&P 500 both hit intraday record highs today, with the Nasdaq reaching 6,106.12 and the S&P hitting 2,401.23. Both indexes have reverted back to mostly flat trading activity.

The Dow is currently down 0.07%, or 13.99 points, at 20,999.31. The Nasdaq-100 is down 0.15% at 6,088.78 and the S&P 500 is currently trading at 2,396.57 which is down 0.12% from the open.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows overall negative signals. Today’s positive vector figure of +0.12% moves  to -0.21% in the next three sessions. Today’s support and resistance is 2,382.95 (± 4.49) and 2,405.18 (± 4.53), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,404.52.   

Oil

Crude oil prices are struggling to rebound, even as recent commentary from Saudi officials has inferred an extension of the OPEC production cut deal into 2018. In particular, OPEC is reportedly having discussions around extending the global production cuts into the first quarter of 2018. Russia, a non-OPEC producer, has also signalled an agreement to slash production in tandem with OPEC members. U.S domestic production continues mostly unabated, which counters OPEC’s attempts at talking prices up.  West Texas Intermediate for June delivery is currently priced at $45.91 per barrel, down 0.71% from the open.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive movement building incrementally. The fund is currently trading at $9.62, which is down 0.41% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $9.53 (± 0.05) and resistance at $9.95 (± 0.05). The predicted close for today is $9.90. Vector figures show +1.88% for today, jumping to +5.51% within three sessions. All vector figures are based on today’s market conditions.  

Gold

The price for June gold is currently up 0.02% at $1,228 a troy ounce. The non-fiat metal is struggling to maintain following last week’s significant losses. Last week, a stronger-than-expected April jobs report gave support to the Fed’s inclination to raise interest rates in the future. Higher interest rates prove bullish for the U.S dollar, which in turn drives down attractiveness of commodities like gold. Because gold is priced in the U.S. dollar, the metal becomes less attractive to investors holding foreign currencies when the dollar is strong.  Although the U.S dollar has strengthened today, gold prices are seeing some buoyancy which can be attributed to to overall weakness in U.S equity markets.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows consistent downward movement. The gold proxy is currently trading at $116.72, down 0.25% from the open. Today’s predicted low is $115.76 (± 0.30) and the predicted high is $117.01 (± 0.30). The predicted close today is $116.50.  

Treasuries

Treasury yields are rising, following Emmanuel Macron’s victory in France’s presidential elections. A Macron victory relieves geopolitical anxieties and represents a degree of economic stability in one of the most integral member countries of the EU. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.35%, currently trading at  2.39%. Bond prices and yields are inversely related to one another

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall negative movement in our 10-day prediction window. Relative to current conditions, we see vector figures moving from -0.37% today to -0.52% in three trading sessions.  The ETF is currently priced at $120.72- down 0.47% from the open. The predicted close today is $120.56 with a low and high of $120.10 (± 0.22) and $121.29 (± 0.25), respectively.  

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently down 7.57% from the open at 9.77. Relative to today’s conditions, the 10-day prediction window shows overall positive movement. The predicted close today is 10.62 with a positive vector of +2.60%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 9.94 (± 0.27) and 12.01 (± 0.32), respectively.