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Major U.S. indices pulled back today, along with markets worldwide, as continued signs of slowing global markets cast doubt on the state of the current global economy. Several factors likely influencing markets this week include Apple’s new streaming and news service, the conclusion of the Mueller probe, Friday’s inversion of the yield curve, and another Brexit vote. Also worth monitoring are recent moves by Boeing to improve safety and PR as well as Uber’s newest acquisition. Look for annualized GDP and labor data later this week as well as a handful of speeches from Fed Presidents, including Chicago, Boston, and San Francisco. With the SPY currently trading above its 200-day moving average, it is important to continue monitoring Seasonal Charts. We expect downward momentum if SPY trades below this level, $275. However, our long-term outlook remains bullish; for reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
On Friday, global economic data showed signs of slowing which initiated losses in Asian, European, and U.S. markets. Some news that initially supported stocks today was the release of the Mueller report. Attorney General William Barr summarized the report in a statement declaring no collusion between the President and Russia in regards to the 2016 election. Mueller’s report detailed abuse of power by Michael Flynn and corporation by Paul Manafort but did not indicate the President of any crimes. Still, Barr stated the report “does not exonerate him,” which leaves some room for concern though most analysts have projected the report to boost most sectors. As details of the report continue to be made public, look for more market-swaying information from this report the days to come.
Apple Spring Event, taking place today, is set to debut two new services by the tech giant. First, Apple’s new streaming service made to compete with the like of Netflix and Hulu will be detailed, including format, pricing, and programming. Similarly to Netflix, and more recent moves by Hulu and Amazon, Apple will look to create and own its content. With Disney and NBC also on track to debut streaming services, the streaming landscape is about to become significantly more crowded. Apple has reportedly already spent over $1 billion on creating new content, recruiting the likes of Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey, and J.J. Abrams. Also releasing today is Apple’s premium news service which will provide a subscription to multiple publishers and news outlets for a single monthly fee. Along with Apple Music, Apple will now also offer an all-inclusive subscription to all three services for one price.
Globally, Asian markets are trading significantly lower while European markets also closed in the red. Brexit uncertainty continues to worry European and global investors as the China-U.S. trade tension lingers. Prime Minister May will receive another confidence vote today, putting her leadership at stake ahead of the Brexit deadline. In Beijing, Chinese and U.S. officials will meet this week to talk trade and tariffs. Also worth monitoring are recent moves by Uber and Boeing. Uber is set to buy its Dubai-based rival Careem for $3.1 billion while Boeing will hold a summit on Wednesday for airline leaders and regulators to review the company’s steps at return the 737 MAX planes to commercial service.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.23% moves to +0.97% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On March 12th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Apple Inc (AAPL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading.
Trade Breakdown
AAPL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $178.90 (± 1.01) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price $180.69 in the first hour of trading, reaching a high of 181.98. The Stop Loss price was set at $177.11.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured stock for Tuesday is Tyson Foods (TSN). TSN is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $67.545 at the time of publication, up 1.00% from the open with a +0.07% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for April delivery (CLJ9) is priced at $58.92 per barrel, down 0.19% from the open, at the time of publication. Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows positive signals. The fund is trading at $12.23 at the time of publication, down 0.61% from the open. Vector figures show +0.61% today, which turns +2.36% in five trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for April gold (GCJ9) is up 0.78% at $1,322.50 at the time of publication. Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $125.06, up 2.36% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.09% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 1.42% at 2.40% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.39% at 2.86% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.15% moves to -0.65% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 4.19% at $17.17 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $15.14 with a vector of -6.83%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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