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The S&P and Nasdaq are tracking towards a fourth straight record after renewed optimism in trade relations with both Mexico and Canada for the U.S. surfaced due to the NAFTA renegotiations. With easing trade tensions U.S. assets continued to rise throughout most sectors, including the Dow which after opening to a slight dip rebounded to make solid gains, currently up over 100 points. Progress in these trade talks coupled with strong economic reports and results have continued to push markets to record highs in August, contrary to usual seasonality trend. Looking at my Seasonal Charts for SPY, the readjusted support and resistance levels come in below $2900 but still offer good opportunities to enter and exit in the next 20-50 days.
Yesterday, all three major U.S. indices closed to small gains but enough to record the third straight session in which all three indices were in the green. The progress in trade talks is sure to power this upward movement as the Trump administration met with Canadian officials to resume trade talks and hopefully renegotiate certain aspects of NAFTA. With each agreement, like the bilateral trade agreement with Mexico, and trade negotiations, such as the recent Canadian meeting and the previous confluence with China, the U.S moves further and further away from the supposed full-on trade war it was nearing just a few weeks ago thus powering shares to new highs. Also adding to the clear path to growth for assets was yesterday’s consumer confidence report which came in its highest level since October 2000. This clearly outweighs the slightly underwhelming home sales reports for the month of July which came in at a 0.07% decline from the previous month. Still, some concern can be found in the recent existing home sale reports which fell to a two-year low.
Also making waves yesterday was Trump’s tweet aimed at Google and most social media platforms as he floated the idea of regulating these services, with his reasoning derived from unfavorable search results. This, of course, did not sit well with both the companies mentioned and investors, slightly denting Google yesterday before strongly rallying today.
Globally, both Asian and European markets closed higher while the dollar climbed during early morning trading but has since then taken a slight dip into negative territory. HP Inc. reported above expectations yesterday which pushed shares almost 3%, Salesforce.com Inc. is set to report after closing bell today.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.07% moves to -0.55% in three trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,888.42. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On August 28th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
GOOGL entered the forecasted Entry 1 price range of $1240.35 (± 5.00) in its last hour of trading on Tuesday and opened above its Target price of $1252.75 today, reaching a high of $1261.11 in the first hour of trading. The Stop Loss was set at $1227.95.
Our featured stock for Thursday is Progressive Corp (PGR). PGR is showing a confident vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $67.71 at the time of publication, up 0.83% from the open with a +0.25% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $68.25, a low of $67.45 and a high of $68.41.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for October delivery (CLV8) is priced at $69.23 per barrel, up 0.93% from the open, at the time of publication. Oil futures continue to climb, currently tracking their highest finish of the month after reports showed domestic crude supplies had a bigger than expected drop last week.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model mostly all negative signals. The fund is trading at $14.64 at the time of publication, up 1.46% from the open. Vector figures show -0.46% today, which turns -1.50% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for December gold (GCZ8) is down 0.25% at $1,211.00 at the time of publication. Although the dollar is currently up for the month, it is down about 0.04% week to date. This, however, has yet to help gold as the commodity recorded back to back loses.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $114.07, up 0.35% at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.14% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury is up 0.16% movement at 2.89% at the time of publication. While tracking down in early morning trading 10-year yields recovered, unlike 30-year and shorter ranged yields which are currently down. Action will likely continue to be mute while investors look forward to two more note auctions today.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.16% moves to -0.12 % in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 2.16% at $12.23 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mostly all negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $12.44 with a vector of +1.32%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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