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With only a few trading sessions left in 2019, traders remain optimistic heading into 2020 as both Chinese and U.S. officials appear to be on track for a partial trade deal. President Trump declared the “deal is done” on Tuesday while Chinese officials shared similar comments stating “close communication” regarding the signing of the deal is ongoing. Major U.S. indices the S&P and Dow Jones lowered before the Christmas holiday after recording nice gains last week, while the Nasdaq is aiming for its 11th straight day of gains today. Futures for all three indices are up today with several promising developments and economic reports. Next week, we will see another shortened trading week with closed markets on Wednesday, January 1st. Current short-term support and resistance levels are $315-$325 for the SPY and we will look to buy near $315 level. Volatility is expected and we encourage readers to retain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Returning from the Christmas holiday, futures markets are seeing nice gains while the Nasdaq is on track for an impressive 10th straight record session and 11th straight in the green. Next week, we will also see a shortened trading week with the New Year’s holiday also falling on Wednesday. With only a few days left in 2019, no major economic reports or earnings are due. Today, we saw the release of weekly unemployment data which lowered for the second straight week. Looking ahead, January 2020 will hold several key events including the Brexit deadline on January 31st, the first FOMC of the year will take place on 28-29, earnings season should begin mid-January, and continued talks between U.S. and China should also take place.
The latest updates regarding the “phase one” U.S.-China deal continue to uphold the current positive sentiment and optimism. After positive reports sent markets higher last week, this week we saw several comments from Chinese and U.S. officials reinforcing that notion. President Trump stated on Tuesday the deal was essentially done and in the translation phases of the signing, while Chinese Foreign Ministry officials have stated communication is ongoing as both sides are aiming to sign the deal sooner rather than later. Globally, markets were muted closing with mixed results in both Europe and Asia, although the Shangai Composite finished up 0.85%. U.S. Treasury notes and gold rose today while the dollar edged lower.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Today’s vector figure of +0.24% moves to +0.56% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On December 20th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Eli Lily and Company (LLY). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
Trade Breakdown
LLY entered its forecasted Strategy A Entry 1 price range $129.39(± 1.03) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price of $132.16 in the last hour of trading the following trading day in the final hour of trading. The Stop Loss price was set at $132.16.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, CVS. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Friday is Baxter International (BAX). BAX is showing a mixed vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $84.71 at the time of publication, up 0.22% from the open with a +0.13% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $61.66 per barrel, up 0.90% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mostly positive signals. The fund is trading at $12.92 at the time of publication. Vector figures show +0.64% today, which turns +0.38% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.66% at $1,514.80 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $142.15, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.05% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.51% at 1.91% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 0.45% at 2.34% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.18% moves to -0.69% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $12.67 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows negative signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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