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Major U.S. indices saw jitters today as investors parse the release of the latest economic data. In January, the consumer price index rose to levels not seen in the past five months, further stoking inflation concerns and putting a dent in the stock markets. With CPI rising 0.5%, and the core CPI (stripped of food and energy prices) rising 0.3%, market participants are worrying about a faster pace to a Fed interest rate hike. Although inflation worries are top of mind currently, and can inform market activity, overall levels are still below trend when looking at a 12-month time horizon. In other news, corporate earnings season is still underway, and a raft of reports have informed buying and selling activity as well.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is down 0.01%, or 1.26 points, at 24,637.65. The S&P 500 is at 2,673.17- up 0.42% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is up 0.92% at 7,077.62.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows continued negative signals. Today’s negative vector figure of -0.13% moves to -1.01% within three trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,625.26 (± 9.81) and 2,677.33 (± 10.00), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,663.36. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On February 12, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for KeyCorp (KEY). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
KEY moved within the Entry 1 price range $20.39 (± 0.13) in the first hour of trading, proceeding to hit its Target price of $20.59 within the next two hours of trading.
Live Trading Room Update
While the market is experiencing continued volatility and uncertainty, see how we make money in the current market and what to expect next in our limited time Live Trading Room highlights. Our winning trade on Feb. 12 resulted in a 88.00% ROI!
| Symbol | Action | Open | Close | Entry | Exit | Stop Loss | Net Gain % |
| MRK (Option) | LONG | 2/12/18 | 2/12/18 | $1.58 | $2.02 | $1.08 | 88% |
Our Live Trading Room is open every trading day from 9:15 am Eastern Time, but these Live Trading Sessions are only available for Premium Members.
We wanted to share the recording with you so you can see the profits you might be missing- even during very volatile markets.
Oil
Although U.S. production has been increasing lately with a spike in active rig counts, investors are reacting to a lower-than-expected rise in crude inventories for the past week. The data reported today showed an increase of 1.8 million barrels for the week ending Feb. 9, compared to a forecast of 2.6 million barrels. Product supplies like gasoline have gained more than expected, however. West Texas Intermediate for March delivery (CLH8) is priced at $59.42 per barrel at the time of publication, up 0.27% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows consistent negative signals. The fund is trading at $11.90 at the time of publication, up 0.26% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $11.43 (± 0.06) and resistance at $11.87 (± 0.06). The predicted close for today is $11.74. Vector figures show -0.83% today, which move to -2.86% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for April gold (GCJ8) is up 1.44% at $1,349.20 at the time of publication. Rising consumer price data, which in turn stokes inflation concerns, has had a booming effect on gold today. Although this data spikes treasury yields- which often detract attention from gold as it is a non-yield bearing asset- investors are more concerned with consumer price levels rising. These consumer price levels, when looked at in a 12-month perspective, are not a significant jump and core figures are flat in the 12-month term. These are headline stories which can impact gold in the short-term, but the overall direction for gold in the medium to long-term is still up in the air.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows consistent negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $127.88, up 1.43% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $124.94 (± 0.23) and the predicted high is $126.08 (± 0.23). The predicted close today is $125.52. Vector signals show -0.16% for today, moving to -0.97% in the next three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Treasury yields are rising today following recent economic data used as a bellwether for inflation. Bond prices are falling today due to the inflation-related data because inflation will degrade the fixed payments of a government bond. Wednesday’s consumer price index data will provide more clues about inflation, which will, in turn, inform investors about possible reactions from the Fed. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.08% at 2.88% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see slight but consistent negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.30% moves to -0.52% in three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $118.07 at the time of publication, down 0.77%. The predicted close today is $118.15 with a low and high of $117.44 (± 0.22) and $118.99 (± 0.22), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is down 19.30% at 20.15 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The predicted close is 27.86 with a positive vector of +2.62%. The predicted lows and highs are 24.97 (± 0.87) and 29.13 (± 1.01), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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