Oil climbs despite strong US dollar as investors play waiting game

The markets are mostly mum this week, with less bodies at trading desks and most preparing for the new year. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, still boosted by financials, remains within striking distance of the 20,000 milestone. The Dow is currently trading at 19,92, down 23.26 points, or 0.12%. The Nasdaq-100 is down 0.54% to 5456.25 today, and the S&P 500 is trading at 2,260 which is down 0.38% from the open.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our prediction model shows slight pullbacks with a late reversal at the end of the 10-day window.  The predicted close today is 2269.56, with predicted support and resistance at 2257 (± 3.89) and 2268 (± 3.91), respectively.

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President-elect Donald Trump will be making an economic announcement today, sometime between 4 p.m. and 5 p.m Eastern time. Incoming White House Press Secretary Sean Spicer described this reveal to be “very positive for American workers.”  

Oil

Crude oil prices are edging up ahead of a proposed Janurary global output reduction effort. The OPEC deal may be eclipsing the effect of a stronger US dollar, which usually causes oil selloffs. Currently, per-barrel prices are at $54.19, up 0.54% from today’s open. Many analysts predict prices to break the $60 mark by the middle of next year. However, US domestic production may increase next year, with anticipated higher rig-counts

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows the current uptick being reversed into January. The fund is currently up 0.43% from its open, trading at 11.78. Today’s prediction sees support at 11.61 (± 0.09) and resistance at 11.85 (± 0.09). The predicted close for today is 11.76.  

Gold

Gold prices have dipped slightly against an appreciating US dollar, although the range of fluctuation is tight. The non-fiat metal is currently trading at $1140.10. Looking into the new year, investors will be keeping an eye on Fed rates and inflation to determine strategies around the gold prices.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see a 10-day block of positive movement. The yellow-metal proxy is currently trading at 108.54 which is up 0.14, or 0.02%. Today’s predicted low is 108.47 (± 0.30) and the predicted high is 108.69 (± 0.30). The predicted close today is 108.66.  

Treasuries

Following a less-than hopeful report from The National Association of Realtors, treasury bonds are priced higher as their yields fell slightly. The report referenced a pending home sale index, which dropped 2.5% from October. Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see this reflected in the 10-day prediction window.

TLT, an ETF which tracks 20+ year bond returns, is currently up 0.28 points, or 0.4% at 118.14. The predicted close today is 117.76 with a low and high of 117.25 (± 0.44) and 117.88 (± 0.44), respectively. Vector movements are positive, climbing to figures around 1% relative to today’s numbers.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently at 12.48 with strong negative vector movements predicted. The 10-day model shows vector values making compounding pullbacks to today’s conditions. The predicted close today is 11.83. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 11.63 (± 0.29) and 12.51 (± 0.31), respectively. Predicted 10-day figures show a contained range  between ~10 and ~11.

Other news

Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) saw its stock drop 1.6% today, but it has made an incredible gain of 250% this year.

The British oil conglomerate BP PLC has struck a deal to purchase the business of Woolworths Ltd., an Australian fuels retailer for $1.29 billion.