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U.S. indices are split today and look to make marginal movement for the day amidst reignited geopolitical concerns. Both S&P and Nasdaq are holding slight gains while the Dow is down about 0.05%. The key support level for the SPX is 2800 which is similarly reflected in the SPY seasonal chart below. Bulls will look to surpass this level as this week is set to feature some major earnings calls. AT&T and Verizon are set to report tomorrow while Amazon, Boeing, McDonald’s, Exxon and plenty others will report throughout the rest of the week. Google parent Alphabet Inc. is due to report today after the market closes, which will surely be one of the biggest reports this week and season.
Major news and market moves today look to be concerned with yesterday’s exchange between U.S. and Iranian Presidents. After the U.S. pulled out of the Iran deal earlier this year Iran has continuously vocalized their displeasure and disappointment in the U.S., this culminated with a warning shot from Iranian President Rouhani which President Trump did not take lightly. Trump, in an all-caps tweet, warned Iran from making further threats against the U.S or they “WILL SUFFER CONSEQUENCES THE LIKES OF WHICH FEW THROUGHOUT HISTORY HAVE EVER SUFFERED BEFORE,” jolting markets awake this morning, driving oil and the dollar up while gold, European, and Asian markets all lowered. Since then, Rouhani has also expressed the plausibility of peace and its importance to both nations.
Earnings will continue to guide markets until anything more concrete comes from the geopolitical headlines and this week is set to feature a lot of earnings, from a lot of major players. Telecommunication companies will be featured tomorrow, while Thursday will feature a handful of airline companies, totaling the number of earnings report for the week at over 500. Reports will continue to influence markets and investors should monitor any other economic data that will come with it.
Big movers today include Tesla and Papa John’s on the downslide while Hasbro and Google have recorded solid gains. Google looks on the move up as investors gear up for the after-hours earnings today while Hasbro’s earnings call this morning before market beat expectations, boosting the stock almost 13.00% at the time of publication. Tesla tumbled as reports it had begun asking for money back from some of its suppliers have surfaced and injected worry in the automaker and energy company. Papa John’s has had a turbulent July which did not ease up on Monday as shares fell another 8% among the controversy surrounding found John Schneider, which had ousted him from the company and also cooled talks on the planned merger with Wendy’s. Again, investors should monitor earnings and SPX $2800 level.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.09% moves to -0.09% in two trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,798.34. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On July 20th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Morgan Stanley (MS). ActiveTrader, included in all Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for short-term trading.
Trade Breakdown
MS opened near Entry 1 price range of $49.85 (± 0.25) and moved through its Target Price of $50.35 in its second hour of trading, reaching a high of $50.60 that day. The Stop Loss was set at $49.35.
Our featured stock for Tuesday is TJX Cos Inc (TJX). TJX is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figures reaching +1.21% in three trading sessions. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $97.8 at the time of publication, up 0.75% from the open with a +0.25% vector figure.
Tuesday’s prediction shows an open price of $97.43, a low of $97.42 and a high of $98.56.
The predicted close for Tuesday is $98.02. Vector figures stay positive tomorrow and drive upward throughout the 10-day forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for September delivery (CLU8) is priced at $68.40 per barrel, up 0.21% from the open, at the time of publication. Oil prices rose Monday as President Trump and Iranian President Rouhani had a heated exchange. This boosted prices, however, rising supply from OPEC countries have slowed gains.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows all negative signals. The fund is trading at $14.26 at the time of publication, up 0.78% from the open. Vector figures show -1.05% today, which turns -3.95% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
With the dollar on the move up today, gold prices have lowered after making unexpected gains on Friday. The dollar weakened after Trump seemed to lash out at the Fed’s independence, however, since then both him and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin have come out in support of the fed, helping the dollar reverse course. The price for August gold (GCQ8) is down 0.54% at $1,224.10 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $116.03, down 0.32% at the time of publication. Vector signals show 0.32% for today, reaching -1.14% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Big selloffs in longer treasury notes on Friday seem to be still affecting bonds today as 10 and 30-year bonds make their biggest single-day jump in weeks. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 3.62% at 2.95% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 4.26% at 3.08% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.18% moves to 0.08% in two sessions before returning to negative territory the following day. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 0.70% at 12.95 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 13.29 with a vector of -0.44%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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