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U.S. markets are seeing choppy trading today as investors parse recent events in the tech sector and lingering trade war concerns. Tuesday saw the tech-saturated Nasdaq Composite Index drop over 1%, following continued Facebook controversy and fresh news for other big corporate names. Facebook CEO Mark Zuckerberg will testify before congress around data privacy, a Federal Trade Commission investigation is now underway and a class-action lawsuit has been filed by three users in the Northern District of California. Tesla Inc. (TSLA) shares have dropped over 7% at the time of publication as an investigation begins over a fatal crash last Friday. The National Transportation Safety Board is investigating whether or not the semi-autonomous driving mode was in operation at the time of the crash. Nvidia Corp. (NVDA) saw early slides as the major chipmaker announced a halt to testing self-driving cars following a fatal accident involving an Uber Technologies Inc. vehicle in Arizona. Nvidia manufactures hardware used in autonomous driving systems- a new business unit which has contributed to its impressive growth. Amazon.com Inc. (AMZN) slid over 5% in early Wednesday trading as investors parse reports that President Trump is targeting the massive ecommerce entity for scrutiny. The stock is heading to a correction phase as it has seen a selloff dropping its shares more than 10% from a $1,598.39 close on March 12.
A surprise visit to China from North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has caught global attention, where it appears Chinese President Xi Jinping was given assurances around denuclearization efforts on the Korean peninsula. President Trump made a similarly calming tweet about the meeting, but insisted on maintaining trade sanctions and diplomatic pressure.
With economic data scarcity this week, trading volume and activity will likely be lighter and skittish as we move into the end of a fiscal quarter. Housekeeping by major market participants will take focus as some profit taking and loss-limitations activity closes out the month.
At the time of publication, the DJIA is up 0.09%, or 22.42 points, at 23,870.21. The S&P 500 is at 2,609.56 – down 0.13% from the open. The Nasdaq-100 is down 0.80% at 6,952.86.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows overall positive signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.88% moves shifts to a positive signal of +2.00% in two trading sessions and holds higher from there. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,584.31 (±11.26) and 2,666.57 (± 11.62), respectively. The predicted close today is 2,573.59. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade
On March 26, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Broadcom Limited (AVGO). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
AVGO moved through the Entry 1 price range of $241.42 (± 1.46) in the first hour of trading, gaining to hit its Target Price of $243.83 in the fifth hour of trading. The Stop Loss was set at $239.01.
Our featured stock for Thursday is Public Service Enterprise Group (PEG). PEG is generating solid bullish signals in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B)– indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure above +1.00% for today and remains strong throughout the 10-day forecast. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $49.47 at the time of publication, up 0.30% from the open with a +1.83% vector figure.
Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $51.01, a low of $50.12 and a high of $52.09.
The predicted close for Thursday is $50.93. The vector jumps to +4.04% on Thursday, indicting strong short-term bullish confidence. This is a good signal for trading opportunities, because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relatively to average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Crude prices are fluctuating as investors digest supply data released Wednesday. While U.S. crude supplies rose above forecasts for the week ending March 23, gasoline and distillate inventories dropped. West Texas Intermediate for May delivery (CLK8) is priced at $64.57 per barrel at the time of publication, down 1.00% from the open.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows overall negative signals. The fund is trading at $12.95 at the time of publication, down 0.99% from the open. Today’s prediction sees support at $12.92 (± 0.06) and resistance at $13.25 (± 0.07). The predicted close for today is $13.00. Vector figures show -0.84% today, which moves to -2.45% within three trading session, holding negative for the majority of the forecast. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for April gold (GCJ8) is down 1.07% at $1,328.10 at the time of publication. Gold prices are giving up a series of recent gains as the dollar finds solid footing and a recent fourth quarter GDP for the U.S. rose to 2.9% from 2.5%. Although the greenback is up and equities are attempting a rebound, market participants are still hesitant to restore risk appetite amidst trade war concerns and overall stock volatility. Another contribution to geopolitical tensions comes from a mass expulsion of Russian diplomats from various embassies around the world due to the ongoing U.K. poisoning investigation.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $126.04, down 1.14% at the time of publication. Today’s predicted low is $127.49 (± 0.32) and the predicted high is $128.22 (± 0.33). The predicted close today is $128.04. Vector signals show +0.36% for today and holds positive throughout the forecast. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Treasury yields are dropping today as a safe haven drive to bonds take the typical inverse effect. The ripple effect of sharp selloff activity in the tech sector is reaching both U.S. markets and those abroad. This has caught many speculators by surprise who had bet on continued yield climbs. This is spurring reversal covering activity in the form of purchasing bonds, exacerbating the situation. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.91% at 2.75% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.71% at 3.01% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.03% moves to -0.02% within three trading sessions before a positive correction. The ETF is priced at $121.42 at the time of publication, up 0.36%. The predicted close today is $120.55 with a low and high of $119.35 (± 0.21) and $120.99 (± 0.21), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 5.73% at 23.79 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows strong negative signals. The predicted close for today is 20.71 with a vector of -2.69%. The predicted lows and highs are 18.10 (± 1.13) and 23.09 (± 1.44), respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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