Trading is choppy as investors await minutes from recent Fed meetings, oil pulls back following reports of questionable compliance from non-OPEC countries

Although major US indexes closed at record levels on Tuesday, trading today has been struggling to keep up.  Investors are largely waiting on minutes from a recent FOMC meeting to be released, looking to comments from other members for more context around Fed thinking.  Oil prices have also recessed, having an impact on trading.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is currently down 0.03% at 20,738.38. The Nasdaq-100 has sunk  0.22% at 5,852.99 and the S&P 500 is currently trading at 2,360.91 which is down 0.20% from the open.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows consistent gains which build incrementally, relative to today’s conditions. Positive vector figures rise from 0.34% today toward 3% within the next ten trading sessions.  

Upcoming Events & Reports

Investors will be looking to the release of the minutes from a Jan. 31 – Feb.1 FOMC meeting. Most expect comments from other members to temper the hawkish sentiments espoused by Chairwoman Yellen last week.

Fed governor Jerome H. Powell will be speaking at the FOrecaster’s Club of New York at 1 p.m. Eastern.

Tesla Inc. (TSLA), Square Inc. (SQ), Fitbit Inc. (FIT), HP Inc. (HPQ) will be reporting earnings after the close today.

Oil

Crude oil prices are shedding off recent gains following remarks from Qatar’s oil minister, indicating non-OPEC producers are not meeting established goals. Mohammed al-Seda said that non-OPEC compliance is at about 50% of what was agreed upon, although those figures amy change. The United States continues to raise production levels and rig counts as well. West Texas Intermediate continues a downward tumble, dropping 1.60% and currently trading at $53.50 per-barrel.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows continued sheds. Negative vector figures hover over 1% within the next three sessions before tapering off and dipping under 0.5%- relative to today’s conditions.  The fund is currently trading at 11.36, down 1.56% from its open. Today’s prediction sees support at 11.37 (± 0.04) and resistance at 11.64 (± 0.04). The predicted close for today is 11.46.  

Gold

Gold prices are down 0.044%, or $5.50 today at $1,232.80 a troy ounce. Investors are hesitant to take risks while awaiting the release of the minutes from a Jan. 31 – Feb.1 FOMC meeting. If the Fed is anticipated to raise interest rates in March, the resulting strength of the dollar would make the non-fiat metal less attractive to investors. A stronger dollar invariably means higher bond yields and fuels bullish market sentiments.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows majority downward movement after three sessions of positve corrections. Relative to today’s conditions, the negative vector values peak at 1.29% before drawing down toward the end of the window.  The gold proxy is currently trading at 117.50, down 0.21%. Today’s predicted low is 117.60 (± 0.37) and the predicted high is 118.70 (± 0.38). The predicted close today is 118.51.  

Treasuries

Yield rates have been somewhat choppy ahead of the release of minutes from the most  recent FOMC meeting. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note had sunk but is now climbing up 0.07% at 2.42% currently. Although comments from senior Fed members have appeared hawkish, investors are still awaiting more data and talking points today. Philadelphia Fed President Patrick Harker made comments in support of higher interest rates come the FOMC March meeting. This would be contingent upon his assessment of inflation and economic growth. Nevertheless, the commentary effectively boosted Treasury yields and offered strength to the dollar.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see downward movement in our 10-day prediction window with slight corrections. Relative to today’s conditions, we see negative vector figures remaining under 0.5% with occasional positive movement. The ETF is currently priced at $120.05, which is down 0.05% from the open. The predicted close today is 120.88 with a low and high of 119.32 (± 0.30) and 121.33 (± 0.31), respectively.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (VIX) is currently up 2.59% at 11.87.  Relative to today’s conditions, the 10-day prediction window shows upward movement building incrementally with each trading session. The predicted close today is 12.03 with a positive vector of 1.14%. Today’s predicted lows and highs are 11.57 (± 0.20) and 12.58 (± 0.22), respectively.

Other news

Activist investor Carl Icahn has taken a stake in Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. (BMY), it was revealed late Tuesday. The drugmaker shaw its shares rise following the news. The stock is currently up 2.74% at $56.28.