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Earnings season continues this week with Bank of America and Netflix today, and then Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, and many more to round out the week. With earnings season starting, the market is looking for direction, possibly overbought, sitting against the upper Bollinger band. Investors should monitor political happenings and earnings report alongside my seasonality charts for clarity on where the market is headed.
Beside major earnings, today’s big market event took place in Finland as President Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin met in Helsinki, their first face-to-face since Trump won the presidency. The two were set to discuss a bevy of topics and the press conference that followed found reports pressing hard for clarity and details on these subject. Russian interference in the 2016 election, the Iran Deal, and overall Russian-U.S. relations. Trump stated relations between the two nations “have never been worse” but believes that has changed after today’s summit. When asked about Russian collusion in 2016 election Trump reiterated his concerns over Hillary Clinton’s emails and the Democratic National Committee servers not being seized by the FBI. When pressed about election interference Trump said he asked “President Putin, he just said it’s not Russia,” and that he himself sees no reason for Russia to meddle in U.S. elections. Other notable statements include Putin’s disappointment in the way the U.S. handled the Iran deal and a shared goal by the two nations for a denuclearization of North Korea. More reactions and details from the summit will continue to roll out and investors should monitor for any major geopolitical waves possibly-caused by this.
Still, with the current geopolitical climate and earnings season momentum, U.S. stocks and markets struggle for direction. Positive consumer reports continue to support markets and stave off geopolitical and trade war fears. With little news on the Chinese front, earnings should take center stage as the week gets going and hopefully they’ll fall in line with Q1 earnings, which have overall done well. Both indices and futures are little changed after Trump-Putin presser and will likely look to earnings for direction. Elsewhere, both Asian and European markets closed slightly down for the day.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. Today’s vector figure of 0.31% moves to 1.19% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On July 2nd, our ActiveInvestor service produced a bullish recommendation for Netflix Inc. (NFLX). ActiveTrader, included in the Tools and Premium Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for short-term trading.
Trade Breakdown
NFLX opened near Entry 1 price range of $383.38 (± 2.64) on July 2nd and moved through its Target Price of $402.55 in on July 6th, reaching a high of 408.33. The Stop Loss was set at $364.21.
Our featured stock for Tuesday is Medtronic PLC (MDT). MDT is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.37% in two trading sessions. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $87.89 at the time of publication, down 0.53% from the open with a +0.33% vector figure.
Tuesday’s prediction shows an open price of $88.73, a low of $88.18 and a high of $89.03.
The predicted close for Tuesday is $88.86. Vector figures stay positive tomorrow and drive upward throughout the 10-day forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for August delivery (CLQ8) is priced at $68.12 per barrel, down 3.99% from the open, at the time of publication. Oil traded sharply lower today after global economic growth and crude output reports came considerably lower than expected, with crude finishing its lowest in almost three months. The U.S. is beginning to feel pressure from the rising gasoline prices, which have gone up 16% since last year.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $13.99 at the time of publication, down 3.32% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $14.39 and resistance at $14.93. The predicted close for tomorrow is $14.66. Vector figures show 0.53% today, which turns -1.63% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Another set of back to back losses as gold trades lower for the second straight session, nearing year-long lows. As the dollar stays in the green, expect gold to trade inversely, which mostly held true with the recent strong dollar; however, today both the dollar and gold look to trade lower. The price for August gold (GCQ8) is down 0.18% at $1,238.80 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mostly negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $117.44, down .14% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $117.45 and the predicted high is $117.8. The predicted close for tomorrow is $117.45. Vector signals show 0.04% for today, reaching -0.33% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
All U.S. Treasury yields look to finish higher today after suffering a troublesome Friday with most closing lower. Earnings and consumer data look to continue supporting these futures. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 0.97% at 2.86% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 1.15% at 2.96% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of -0.07% moves to 0.06% in three trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $122.08 at the time of publication, down 0.07%. The predicted close tomorrow is $122.70 with a low and high of $122.37 and $122.81, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is up 0.44% at 12.62 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 10.83 with a vector of -3.11%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 10.23 and 13.64, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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