Trump Welcomes EU to White House as Earnings Continue to Beat Expectations

Halfway through one of the busiest earnings week, most companies have beat top and bottom line expectations. By the end of the week 50% of SPX companies will report and offer good opportunities for investors to enter positions. It is my belief that the market is overbought and, as always, the path of least resistance is the upside. Monitor my A.I.-guided Stock Forecast Toolbox and Seasonal Charts for short and long-term support and resistance levels to spot these prime positions. Overall, stocks have been on the rise in July and with the upcoming Trump-Juncker junction, as well as many more second-quarter earnings, I expect plenty of news to produce profitable trades. Amazon, Comcast, Electronic Arts, Spotify, and McDonalds report tomorrow, while Friday will see Exxon, Chevron, and Twitter report second-quarter earnings.

Today, President Trump will host European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker and European Union Trade Chief Cecilia Malmstrom in the White House to discuss tariffs and trade relations, both sides looking to avoid an all-out trade war. The EU wants Trump to reconsider increasing tariffs on European cars exported to the U.S., insisting that they will then place $20 billion worth of tariffs on U.S. goods. On Tuesday, Trump responded with a promised aid-package for U.S. farmers hit by trade tensions and tariffs. Trump has stated he would like the EU to drop the 10% tax on U.S. cars. More news on today’s meeting should become available after the two sides meet later this afternoon.

In earnings news, yesterday Boeing and GE disappointed investors, underperforming expectations lowered shares of both companies significantly. Still, assets and indices were mostly on the move up yesterday with an overall positive-tone set from reports thus far, spearheaded by Google-parent Alphabet. Yesterday, Coca-Cola beat expectation, pushing shares up 2%, while AT&T second-quarter reports fell short, dropping shares 3.5%. Some big-name airline, oil, and social companies have yet to report but are scheduled to round out the week in major earnings-reporting.

Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Today’s vector figure of -0.09% moves to +0.04% in two trading sessions. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,819.32. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Highlight of a Recent Winning Trade

On July 20th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Morgan Stanley (MS). ActiveTrader, included in all Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for short-term trading.

Trade Breakdown

MS opened near Entry 1 price range of $49.85 (± 0.25)  and moved through its Target Price of $50.35 in its second hour of trading, reaching a high of $50.60 that day. The Stop Loss was set at $49.35.

Thursday Morning Featured Stock

Our featured stock for Thursday is JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM). JPM is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.  Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.65% in five trading sessions. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.

*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services.  If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.

The stock is trading at $114.02 at the time of publication, down 0.12% from the open with a +0.11% vector figure.

Thursday’s prediction shows an open price of $112.97, a low of $112.82 and a high of $116.47.

The predicted close for Thursday is $115.34. Vector figures stay positive tomorrow and drive upward throughout the 10-day forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.

Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.

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Oil

West Texas Intermediate for September delivery (CLU8) is priced at $69.19 per barrel, up 0.90% from the open, at the time of publication. Larger than expected drop in inventories boosted prices today as well as the U.S. Energy Information Agency’s report on last week’s oil decline in over six million barrels. Rising tension between the U.S. and Iran has also provided pressure for the commodity.

Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows all negative signals. The fund is trading at $14.4 at the time of publication, up 1.23% from the open. Vector figures show -0.48% today, which turns -2.07% in two trading sessions.  Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Gold

Gold continued its decline this morning dropping to year-low territory before slightly rebounding. The strong dollar and uncertainty over U.S.-EU trade relations have pulled the commodity in both directions while still favoring an overall decline. The price for August gold (GCQ8) is down 0.54% at $1,224.10 at the time of publication.

Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The gold proxy is trading at $116.41, up 0.32% at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.18% for today, reaching -0.47% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.  

Treasuries

Government bonds were on the decline today as investors wait for more news regarding the Trump-Juncker meeting centered on the recent tariffs between the U.S. and EU. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down 0.25% at 2.94% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down 0.52% at 3.06% at the time of publication.

Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see almost all negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of 0.16% moves to -1.60% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.

Volatility

The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 0.32% at $12.37 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is $13.17 with a vector of +4.84%. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.