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The final hour of trading today saw all three major US indices rebound as inflation, rate hikes, and geopolitical developments continue to impact market movement. China’s expanded COVID-19 lockdowns and Elon Musk’s purchase of Twitter are additional headlines impacting markets currently. Key earnings today include Activision Blizzard and Coca-Cola, while tomorrow Microsoft and Google are set to report. Tuesday’s releases will be plenty as 3M, Chipotle Mexican Grill, GE, GM, Pepsico, and Visa are also due. Meta Platforms, aka Facebook, will announce on Wednesday along with Boeing, Kraft-Heinz, PayPal, Qualcomm, and T-Mobile. Amazon, Apple, and Twitter will cap off the week in major tech earnings as they are set for Thursday. Focus also subsides around inflation and the Fed’s hawkish stance, with many expecting a rate hike in the June Federal Open Market Committee while a potential 50 basis point hike could be seen in May. After hitting highs last week, the 10-year Treasury note retreated, easing pressure. With the Dollar and Bitcoin on the move higher today, gold futures fell nearly 2%.
The $VIX is trading near the 30 level and we are keeping an eye on the Geopolitical risks in Ukraine and earnings data, both of which can impact the next move in the market. We are watching the overhead resistance levels in the SPY, which are presently at $435 and then $441. The $SPY support is at $420 and then $410. We expect the market to continue to trade higher in the next two to six weeks. In the short term, the market is oversold and will continue the bottoming process for the next few sessions. Globally, European markets closed in the green while Asian markets traded to mixed results. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The symbol is trading at $133.26with a vector of -0.64% at the time of publication.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, xop. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $98.80 per barrel, down 3.21%, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $76.31 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 1.82% at $1899.00 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $180.29 at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.17% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is down, at 2.826% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 2.893% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $26.92 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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