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All eyes are on earnings season as reporting gets underway this week. Coming off a better than expected finish to the week that started on a slump, U.S. assets are on the march up for the third straight session. Tariff talks and fears have eased off markets, with the U.S. and Beijing both imposing the long-talked-of tariffs on each other, allowing economic data to overtake and guide indices. All three major U.S. indices started the day with modest gains, with the S&P and Dow pulling away even further ahead in afternoon trading. The 278 overhead resistance on SPY looks like it could be breached, with the symbol currently trading at 277.37. This should provide further optimism in investors and traders alike as, although, tariff scares have had their share effect on markets, ultimately, economic data and earnings seem to be the main conductors of trends; and as it stands the economic data looks, thus far, looks good.
Outside of the U.S., global markets are also on the rise as European and Asian markets are in the green after a relatively quiet geopolitical-news weekend. The dollar is also making slight gains today, which mirror its modest gains for the year, while the Nasdaq, mainly powered by its tech sector, has made the biggest gains out of all major U.S. indices this year. End of last week and today’s strong performance can be attributed to the better than expected June labor numbers which came in above expectations. This, coupled with the oncoming earnings season, should bode well for investors as we’ve seen this one-two punch of positive economic data and strong earnings overpower the usual geopolitical volatility this year. With already two strong earnings seasons behind us this year, the pivotal mid-summer earnings could forecast the rest of the year.
With the tariffs in effect making less impact than the fears that preluded them, look for earnings to guide markets for the next few weeks of summer. Economic data will continue to come in, such as a May consumer credit report due today, and could help also. This week we’ll see Pepsico and Delta airlines release reports earlier in the week while a trio of major banks will close out the week: Citigroup, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan Chase. Bank of America will report next Monday and from then on we’ll have a steady flow of earnings reports. Support and Resistance levels should be monitored, especially in my seasonality charts, to find those optimal entry and exit positions for every trader.
Using the ^GSPC symbol to analyze the S&P 500, our 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. Today’s vector figure of +0.19% moves to 1.08% in two trading sessions. Today’s predicted support and resistance levels are 2,759.00 (±5.03) and 2,794.55 (± 5.09), respectively. The predicted close for tomorrow is 2,786.08. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On July 5th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Assurant Inc. (AIZ). ActiveTrader, included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans, is designed for intraday trading.
Trade Breakdown
AIZ opened near Entry 1 price range of $103.84 (± 0.58) in its second hour of trading and moved through its Target Price of $104.88 in its last hour of trading that day. The Stop Loss was set at $102.80.
Our featured stock for Tuesday is Lily Eli & Co (LLY). LLY is showing a confident uptrend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe. Our 10-day prediction model shows positive vector figure reaching +1.19% in two trading sessions. Our benchmark for vector figures is +1.00%.
*Please note: Our featured stock is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or ActiveInvestor recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
The stock is trading at $88.24 at the time of publication, up 0.97% from the open with a +0.42% vector figure.
Tuesday’s prediction shows an open price of $87.56, a low of $87.27 and a high of $88.17.
The predicted close for Tuesday is $87.91. Vector figures stay positive tomorrow and drive upward throughout the 10-day forecast. This is a good signal for trading opportunities because we use vectors as a primary factor in determining price movements for stocks and ETF.
Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for last trading session. The column shows expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
Oil
West Texas Intermediate for August delivery (CLQ8) is priced at $73.49 per barrel, down 0.41% from the open, at the time of publication. September crude prices have been lifted by the expected outage of supplies in Libya, Iran, and Venezuela. Last month, OPEC agreed to increase the commodity’s output by 1 million barrels to counter some these outages.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows almost all negative signals. The fund is trading at $14.93 at the time of publication, down 0.20% from the open. Tomorrow’s prediction sees support at $14.38 and resistance at $14.89. The predicted close for tomorrow is $14.83. Vector figures show +0.21% today, which turns -1.82% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
Although currently up, the dollar’s early morning retreat pushed gold prices higher as the safe-haven commodity is looking to reach a new weekly high. A planned NATO meeting this week could have some impact on the commodity, possibly driving gold up to breach the important $1,260-61 barrier. The price for August gold (GCQ8) is up 0.42% at $1,261.00 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows all positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $119.23, up 0.31% at the time of publication. Tomorrow’s predicted low is $119.04 and the predicted high is $119.29. The predicted close for tomorrow is $119.05. Vector signals show 0.08% for today, reaching 0.44% in two trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Treasuries
Long-term yields are nearing yearly lows as both as bond prices continue to rise today. Both employment data and the Chinese tariffs seem to have their impact on the treasury notes. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.13% at 2.85% at the time of publication. The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 1.10% at 2.96% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see all positive signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of 0.03% moves to 0.69% in four trading sessions. The ETF is priced at $122.07 at the time of publication, down 0.55%. The predicted close tomorrow is $122.87 with a low and high of $122.53 and $122.95, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 3.81% at 12.86 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows all negative signals. The predicted close for tomorrow is 11.80 with a vector of -7.06%. The predicted lows and highs for tomorrow are 11.75 and 12.69, respectively. Prediction data is uploaded after market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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