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After reaching record territory last week, U.S. benchmarks closed in the red to start the week. The growing rate of COVID cases and possible fallout from last week’s Capitol Hill events have hindered market sentiment as we approach mid-January. This week, earnings season is due to kick off with major banks reporting while next week President-elect Joe Biden is set for inauguration. While another round of stimulus might be in store with the Democratic-controlled Congress, political impact on the market is marred with House Democrats introducing impeachment articles against President Trump. Notable market movement today includes Tesla, booking its first losing session in nearly three weeks as the stock closed 7% lower, and Twitter, which dropped over 6% after the social-media giant permanently suspended President Trump’s account. Globally, Asian markets closed with mixed results while European benchmarks finished unanimously lower. We continue seeing strong rotation from growth to value stocks as the SPY retested its recent highs. Until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting SPY to trade in the range of $354-$380. The market could be prone to further corrections and the next level of support is set at $354. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Job Openings (November) – Tuesday
Consumer Price Index (December) – Wednesday
Core CPI (December) – Wednesday
Federal Budget (December) – Wednesday
Beige Book – Wednesday
Weekly Jobless Claims (1/9) – Thursday
Import Price Index (December) – Thursday
Retail Sales (December) – Friday
Producer Price Index (December) – Friday
Industrial Production (December) – Friday
Capacity Utilization (November) – Friday
Business Inventories (November) – Friday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, MS. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $50.52 per barrel, up 1.18% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $32.38 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 1.75% at $1920.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $182.33, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.16% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is flat, at 0.923% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is down, at 1.660% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.77 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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