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Markets are maintaining gains and reaching new highs off yesterday’s signing of the “phase one” U.S.-China trade deal as well as strong economic data in the form of earnings and the latest Beige Book. Nearly $200 billion worth of U.S. goods, from agricultural to energy products, are due to be bought in the next two years by China while further negotiations will be held for additional phases of the trade agreement. Also supporting stocks today is the latest Retail Sales data release, which showed 0.3% growth last month, along with yesterday’s U.S. Beige Book release, which showed modest growth for the twelve federal districts. Today, Morgan Stanley released earnings before market open, CSX is due to release after the close. Next week look out for Netflix, Intel, Comcast, and more. We remain bullish in the short-term but also some shallow pullbacks during this earnings season. Current support and resistance levels for the SPY remain at $320-$330 and we will continue to look for buying opportunities near $320. We encourage Market Commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
The Dow, Nasdaq, and S&P closed in the green again today as global trade optimism remains high following the signing of the U.S.-China “phase one” deal. Chinese delegation in D.C. signed the deal, along with President Trump, which outlined several agreements by both nations. Look out for additional negotiations dates to be announced and continued “phases” to be rolled out as both aim to continue resolving their trade issues. Also affecting markets today is the latest retail sales data which showed a 0.3% increase in December, which followed Wednesday’s positive Beige Book release. Next up, the Q4 earnings season will likely continue dictating markets while the next FOMC is scheduled for the month’s end.
Earnings remain in focus this week and next as several major names continue releasing their Q4 data. Following this week’s major banking releases from Citigroup, J.P.Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Charles Schwab, Wells Fargo, and Bank of America, next week will feature several key retail and tech earnings. Netflix, United Airlines, Haliburton, and Captial One are due to report Monday while Intel, Comcast, and many more are set to fill out the rest of the week of earnings. Morgan Stanley reported positive earnings before the market open today while CSX is due to report after market close.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term positive outlook. Today’s vector figure of +0.15% moves to +1.05% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
On January 10th, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Apple Inc. (AAPL). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
Trade Breakdown
AAPL entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $309.63(± 1.05) in its third hour of trading that day and passed through its Target price of $312.73 in the second hour of trading the following trading. The Stop Loss price was set at $306.53.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, MA. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here.
Our featured symbol for Friday is Abbott Laboratories (ABT). ABT is showing a positive vector in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (A) indicating it ranks in the top 10th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $88.18 at the time of publication, with a +0.19% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $58.06 per barrel, down 1.66% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.2 at the time of publication. Vector figures show 0.51% today, which turns to -1.05% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.72% at $1,548.70 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. The gold proxy is trading at $145.82, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.31% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 1.54% at 1.85% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 1.10% at 2.30% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.19% moves to -0.68% in four sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Volatility
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $12.32 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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