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Today, markets are maintaining their gains after nearing record highs on Friday following two key global developments: the completion of the U.S.-China “Phase One” deal and the U.K.’s election. While the U.K. election provided further clarity on Brexit heading into the new year, the signing of the U.S.-China deal was able to avert fresh tariffs which were due to begin December 15th. In turn, all three major U.S. indices are on track to close in the green alongside European markets, which also closed in the green, while Asian markets were mixed. Currently, SPY short-term overhead resistance is at $320 and short-term support sits at $315. We will look to buy when the SPY is near $307 level. Further volatility is expected and we encourage Market Commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
U.S. markets are receiving support from the latest U.S.-China trade development which saw both sides agree to a partial “Phase One” trade deal, which helped avert further tariffs. With no additional December tariffs, both sides now look forward to future negotiations regarding additional steps and trade agreements. Both markets receive sizable boosts off the news Friday and while U.S. markets remain higher today, Asian markets have closed to mixed results. Over in the U.K., the latest election results kept Boris Johnson as Prime Minister while maintaining a conservative majority in Parliament. The U.K. will now be looking to leave the European Union by Januar 31st. With the FOMC behind us and no additional labor or key earnings reports in 2019, it appears as though the market through the end of the year will continue to be guided by global developments. This week, key economic reports include November housing data, Q3 GDP revision, and November Core Inflation.
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Today’s vector figure of 0.00% moves to +0.18% in four trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Today only, we are doing something we have RARELY do!
We are offering LIFETIME ACCESS to our Stock Forecast Toolbox Membership for less than the regular price we normally charge for only 1 year of service!
I want to make this offer a complete no-brainer! Would you rather sign up for just one year of service or get Lifetime Access for an even lower price?
On December 3rd, our ActiveTrader service produced a bullish recommendation for Pepsico Inc (PEP). ActiveTrader is included in all paid Tradespoon membership plans and is designed for day trading, with signals meant to last for 1-2 days.
Trade Breakdown
PEP entered its forecasted Strategy B Entry 1 price range $135.88 (± 0.32) in its first hour of trading and passed through its Target price of $137.24 in the second hour of trading the following trading day in the final hour of trading. The Stop Loss price was set at $117.74.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does not have a position in the featured symbol, JPM. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his own personal money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s personal picks, please click here. 
Our featured symbol for Tuesday is JPMorgan Chase(JPM). JPM is showing a neutral vector trend in our Stock Forecast Toolbox’s 10-day forecast. This stock is assigned a Model Grade of (B) indicating it ranks in the top 25th percentile for accuracy for current-day predicted support and resistance, relative to our entire data universe.
The stock is trading at $138.17 at the time of publication, up 0.99% from the open with a -0.29% vector figure.
Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $60.22 per barrel, up 0.25% from the open, at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $12.58 at the time of publication. Vector figures show -0.21% today, which turns +0.55% in three trading sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is down 0.06% at $1,480.20 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $139.05, at the time of publication. Vector signals show +0.37% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up 3.62% at 1.89% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up 2.52% at 2.31% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see overall negative signals in our 10-day prediction window. Today’s vector of +0.17% moves to -0.59% in three sessions. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is down 3.40% at $12.2 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows positive signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Today only, we are doing something we have RARELY do!
We are offering LIFETIME ACCESS to our Stock Forecast Toolbox Membership for less than the regular price we normally charge for only 1 year of service!
I want to make this offer a complete no-brainer! Would you rather sign up for just one year of service or get Lifetime Access for an even lower price?
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