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After finishing slightly lower on Tuesday, U.S. benchmarks once again neared record territory as all three U.S. indices closed in the green. As volume continues to wind down with the year wrapping up, not many events are currently impacting markets. Most likely, yesterday’s blockage of an increase on aid payments from $600 to $2000 by Senate majority leader McConnell pushed stocks slightly lower while U.S. Treasury Secretary Mnuchin stated direct deposit payments of $600 could be arriving as early as today. Economic reports remain sparse today but will pick up next week with monthly employment reports, trade deficit data, and the latest FOMC minutes. Tesla saw shares move over 4% higher as their 2020 reports estimated over 500,000 cars delivered; gold and oil inched higher while the dollar dipped. Globally, Asian markets traded higher with only Japan closing in the red while European markets unanimously traded lower. The SPY remains on its way to retest recent highs and we continue seeing strong rotation from growth to value stocks. Until an additional breakout is maintained, our models are projecting SPY to trade in the range of $354-$380. The market could be prone to further corrections and the next level of support is set at $354. We encourage all market commentary readers to maintain clearly defined stop-levels for all positions. For reference, the SPY Seasonal Chart is shown below:
Key U.S. Economic Reports/Events This Week:
Pending Home Sales (November) – Wednesday
Weekly Jobless Claims (12/26) – Thursday
New Year’s Day (Markets Closed) – Friday
For reference, the S&P 10-Day Forecast is shown below:
Using the “^GSPC” symbol to analyze the S&P 500 our 10-day prediction window shows a near-term mixed outlook. Prediction data is uploaded after the market closes at 6 p.m. CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
10-Day Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Note: The Vector column calculates the change of the Forecasted Average Price for the next trading session relative to the average of actual prices for the last trading session. The column shows the expected average price movement “Up or Down”, in percent. Trend traders should trade along the predicted direction of the Vector. The higher the value of the Vector the higher its momentum.
*Please note: At the time of publication Vlad Karpel does have a position in the featured symbol, JD. Our featured symbol is part of your free subscription service. It is not included in any paid Tradespoon subscription service. Vlad Karpel only trades his money in paid subscription services. If you are a paid subscriber, please review your Premium Member Picks, ActiveTrader, or MonthlyTrader recommendations. If you are interested in receiving Vlad’s picks, please click here.
West Texas Intermediate for Crude Oil delivery (CL.1) is priced at $48.28 per barrel, up 0.58% at the time of publication.
Looking at USO, a crude oil tracker, our 10-day prediction model shows mixed signals. The fund is trading at $32.92 at the time of publication. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
Gold
The price for the Gold Continuous Contract (GC00) is up 0.73% at $1896.60 at the time of publication.
Using SPDR GOLD TRUST (GLD) as a tracker in our Stock Forecast Tool, the 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. The gold proxy is trading at $176.35, at the time of publication. Vector signals show -0.14% for today. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury note is up, at 0.923% at the time of publication.
The yield on the 30-year Treasury note is up, at 1.663% at the time of publication.
Using the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) as a proxy for bond prices in our Stock Forecast Tool, we see mixed signals in our 10-day prediction window. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
The CBOE Volatility Index (^VIX) is $22.77 at the time of publication, and our 10-day prediction window shows mixed signals. Prediction data is uploaded after the market close at 6 p.m., CST. Today’s data is based on market signals from the previous trading session.
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